安联贸易报告：海湾国家战争实体损失逾2000亿美元 到2030年累计经济缺口或达7900亿美元

保险公司安联贸易（Allianz Trade）11 月 9 日发布的报告估计，自 2026 年 2 月 28 日战争爆发以来，海湾国家遭受的实体损失已经超过 2,000 亿美元；海湾合作委员会成员国 2026 至 2030 年的累计经济产出缺口可能达到 7,900 亿美元，相当于比战前增长趋势低 5.9%。

报告说，霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻给海湾经济、特别是能源部门与基础设施带来沉重压力：区内 80 多处能源设施受影响，主要分布在科威特、卡塔尔和巴林，其中约三分之一严重受损。安联贸易预计海湾合作委员会经济 2026 年将收缩 4.0%，同期累计预算赤字约 4,750 亿美元，重建开支约 2,000 亿美元。

报告同时预计，2030 年前区内基础设施与防务支出将达 3,800 亿至 4,000 亿美元。7,900 亿美元指相对战前预测少实现的经济产出，并非全部为直接财产损失。

关联：跟进：特朗普与卡塔尔首相通话，称海湾国家倾向维持对伊朗封锁

Allianz Trade: Gulf War Damage Tops $200 Billion, Cumulative Economic Gap Could Reach $790 Billion by 2030

A report released on November 9 by insurer Allianz Trade estimates that the war that began on February 28, 2026 has caused more than $200 billion in physical damage across Gulf countries, and that the Gulf Cooperation Council's cumulative economic shortfall over 2026-2030 could reach $790 billion, equivalent to a 5.9 percent gap in GDP compared with the pre-war growth trend.

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have put significant pressure on Gulf economies, particularly the energy sector and infrastructure, the report said. More than 80 energy facilities in the region have been affected, mainly in Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, with around one-third severely damaged. Allianz Trade forecasts the GCC economy will contract by 4.0 percent in 2026, with a cumulative budget deficit of about $475 billion over the period and a reconstruction bill of about $200 billion.

The report also forecasts $380 billion to $400 billion in domestic infrastructure and defense spending through 2030. The projected $790 billion represents lost economic output between 2026 and 2030 compared with pre-war forecasts, rather than additional physical destruction.

Related: Follow-up: Trump Says Gulf States Prefer Keeping Iran Blockade After Call With Qatar’s Prime Minister

来源：安联贸易

发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）

图片来源：图：科威特 Mina Al-Ahmadi 炼油厂夜景（资料图）。图：Grubb，公共领域，经维基共享资源 / The Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery in Kuwait at night (file photo). Photo by Grubb, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

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