特朗普伊朗决策陷三派之争：万斯主谈、赫格塞思主打、鲁比奥与贝森特主压，卡塔尔展开最后时刻斡旋

华盛顿——《华尔街日报》11月7日报道，中期选举落幕后，特朗普总统的顾问与外国盟友正竞相影响他对伊朗战争的决定：以外交协议结束这场战争，还是恢复大规模打击。报道援引美国官员说，白宫内部已经分化为三派。

主谈派以副总统万斯与特使威特科夫为首，主张继续外交努力、达成结束战争并重开霍尔木兹海峡的协议；万斯在选前已告知特朗普，他打算把共和党的败选归因于这场战争，选后又公开质疑战争是否值得。主打派以战争部长赫格塞思与中央司令部司令布拉德·库珀上将为首，两人在近期的军事选项简报中支持恢复大规模作战；多名鹰派外部顾问选后致电特朗普，称他的政治遗产取决于迫使伊朗放弃核计划。主压派以国务卿鲁比奥与财政部长贝森特为首，主张收紧制裁、维持对伊朗贸易的封锁。以色列总理内塔尼亚胡仍在推动恢复打击，海湾盟友则对升级更为谨慎。

斡旋方正做最后努力。卡塔尔首相穆罕默德·本·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼·阿勒萨尼周五在英国牛津一场活动上说，卡塔尔的调解人此时此刻正在工作，以避免该地区出现新一轮升级；卡塔尔埃米尔塔米姆同日与特朗普通了电话。报道说，伊朗官员未来几天、最快周六将返回多哈，商讨一份协议草案：草案把初步接触的时间表从6月谅解备忘录的60天压缩到两天、几乎立即转入核问题谈判；海湾国家外长也在设法与特朗普通话或赴华盛顿举行高层会面，陈述达成协议的理由。白宫官员表示，特朗普并不急于作出决定。就在周五，特朗普刚证实美军当天对伊朗格什姆岛实施了一次小规模打击。

关联：

跟进：万斯主导对伊朗间接谈判：几乎每天与卡塔尔、巴基斯坦调解人通话

跟进：特朗普证实美军周五再打格什姆岛：称摧毁一处新建防空装置

（来源：华尔街日报）

Trump's Advisers Split Three Ways on Iran — Vance for a Deal, Hegseth for Strikes, Rubio and Bessent for Pressure — as Qatar Mediates at the Eleventh Hour

WASHINGTON — With the midterm elections over, President Trump's advisers and foreign allies are racing to shape his decision on the Iran war — whether to end it through a diplomatic deal or reignite it with renewed large-scale strikes — The Wall Street Journal reported on November 7, citing U.S. officials who described a White House split into three camps.

The diplomacy camp, led by Vice President JD Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff, wants continued backing for talks aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz; Vance had told Trump before the election that he intended to blame the Republican defeat on the war, and afterwards publicly questioned whether the war was worthwhile. The strikes camp, led by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper, has backed a return to major combat operations in recent briefings on military options, and hawkish outside advisers have called Trump since Election Day arguing that his legacy depends on forcing Iran to surrender its nuclear program. The pressure camp, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, advocates tightening sanctions and continuing the blockade on Iranian trade. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still pushing for renewed strikes, while Gulf allies are more wary of escalation.

Mediators are making an eleventh-hour effort. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said at an event in Oxford, England, on Friday that Qatari mediators were working 'as we speak' to avoid another wave of escalation in the region, and Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, spoke with Trump the same day. Iranian officials are expected to return to Doha in the coming days, possibly as early as Saturday, to discuss a draft deal that would shrink the timetable for preliminary contacts from the 60 days set in the June memorandum of understanding to just two days, moving almost immediately into nuclear negotiations; Gulf foreign ministers are also seeking a call with Trump or a high-level meeting in Washington to make the case for a deal. A White House official said Trump is in no hurry to decide. On Friday, Trump had just confirmed that U.S. forces carried out a small-scale strike on Iran's Qeshm Island that day.

Related:

Follow-Up: Vance Leads the Indirect Talks With Iran, Speaking Almost Daily With Qatari and Pakistani Mediators

Follow-up: Trump Confirms U.S. Struck Qeshm Island Again on Friday, Says a New Air-Defence Installation Was Destroyed

(Source: The Wall Street Journal)

来源：华尔街日报

发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）

图片来源：图：美国副总统万斯（资料图）。2026年10月6日，万斯在阿拉斯加州安克雷奇 Elmendorf 空军基地出席美军能力展示活动。白宫官方照片，公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: U.S. Vice President JD Vance (file photo) at a U.S. military capabilities showcase at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Anchorage, Alaska, on October 6, 2026. Official White House photo, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.

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