跟进：CDC评估刚果（金）埃博拉确诊10,498例：最可能情景为多地高强度持续传播

美国疾控中心（CDC）预测与疫情分析中心11月2日发布情景评估：刚果民主共和国由本迪布焦病毒引发的埃博拉疫情，截至10月31日累计确诊10,498例、死亡5,107例，为有记录以来第二大埃博拉疫情。评估认为，截至11月2日最可能出现的是多地高强度持续传播的「情景C」，没有任何指标支持疫情能在未来三个月内被迅速控制的「情景A」。

刚果（金）卫生部今年5月15日宣布暴发此次疫情，世界卫生组织5月17日宣布其构成国际关注的突发公共卫生事件。本站此前跟进报道时累计确诊为10,351例，本次评估升至10,498例。此次疫情规模仅次于2014至2016年的西非埃博拉疫情（确诊28,610例、死亡11,308人）。

评估指出，疫情已波及8个省的67个卫生区，仅10月就新增4个卫生区；此次疫情的增长速度为有记录以来最快，头100天内确诊即超过5,000例。目前由已知接触者中发现的病例估计只占15%至20%，远低于90%的目标；截至9月10日，67%的死亡发生在治疗机构之外的社区内。非洲疾控中心8月20日估计，实际病例中只有约30%至40%被检出。CDC表示，因数据存在缺口，其对评估的信心为中等。

疫苗方面，截至11月2日，刚果（金）已收到70,000剂 Ervebo 疫苗，其中50,000剂供一线工作人员使用，20,000剂用于一项已经启动的三期临床试验。不过，Ervebo 对本迪布焦病毒的效力尚不明确，目前没有任何针对本迪布焦病毒获批的疫苗。

刚果（金）以外，尼日利亚、肯尼亚、乌干达和法国此前曾检出病例，目前刚果（金）以外没有活跃病例。

（来源：美国疾控中心）

Follow-up: CDC Assesses Congo Ebola Outbreak at 10,498 Cases, Sees Sustained High-Intensity Spread as Most Likely Scenario

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), through its Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, published a scenario assessment on November 2 on the Ebola disease outbreak caused by Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of Congo. As of October 31, the outbreak had reached 10,498 confirmed cases and 5,107 deaths, making it the second-largest Ebola outbreak on record. As of November 2, the most likely path was "Scenario C" — very large, sustained, high-intensity transmission in multiple areas, with cases still increasing — while no indicators were consistent with "Scenario A," rapid control, and nothing suggested rapid control within the next three months, through January 2027.

The DRC health ministry declared the outbreak on May 15, 2026, and the World Health Organization declared a public health emergency of international concern on May 17. GSM's previous follow-up report put confirmed cases at 10,351; the new assessment raises the figure to 10,498. The outbreak is second in scale only to the 2014-2016 West Africa epidemic, which recorded 28,610 cases and 11,308 deaths.

According to the assessment, 67 health zones across 8 provinces are affected, including 4 zones newly affected in October, and the outbreak's growth has been the fastest on record, passing 5,000 cases within its first 100 days. Only an estimated 15 to 20 percent of cases are being found among known contacts, against a target of 90 percent; as of September 10, 67 percent of deaths occurred in the community, outside treatment units. Africa CDC estimated on August 20 that only 30 to 40 percent of cases were being detected. The CDC said its confidence in the assessment is moderate because of data gaps.

On vaccines, the DRC had received 70,000 doses of Ervebo as of November 2 — 50,000 for frontline workers and 20,000 for a Phase 3 trial now under way. However, Ervebo's efficacy against Bundibugyo virus is unclear, and no vaccine against Bundibugyo virus is approved.

Cases have been detected outside the DRC in Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda and France; there are currently no active cases outside the DRC.

(Source: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

来源：美国疾控中心

发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）

图片来源：图：2026年刚果（金）本迪布焦病毒埃博拉疫情分布图，按卫生区统计累计病例，数据截至2026年10月19日至20日。CC0。 / Map: Cumulative cases of the 2026 Bundibugyo virus Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo by health zone; data as of October 19-20, 2026. CC0.

GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story

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