以色列大选最终结果：内塔尼亚胡阵营53席未过半、阿拉伯政党19席成组阁关键

据美联社报道，以色列中央选举委员会10月30日凌晨公布10月27日大选的最终结果：总理 Benjamin Netanyahu（内塔尼亚胡）领导的阵营在120席的议会（Knesset）中赢得53席，失去原有的议会多数；主要反对派阵营赢得48席；阿拉伯政党拿下其余19席，创历史性成绩。组阁门槛为61席，两个阵营均未过半。

内塔尼亚胡是以色列任职时间最长的总理，目前仍在任。接下来，各党须展开预计持续数周的艰难谈判，在立场迥异的政党之间拼凑至少61席：谈判桌的一边是极端正统派与世俗政党，另一边是阿拉伯政党领导的政党。

程序上，最终结果须在下周三（11月4日）完成认证并呈交总统 Isaac Herzog，其后由 Herzog 任命一名组阁人选——人选可能是得票最多政党的领袖内塔尼亚胡，也可能是各党领袖认为最有希望组阁成功的人。若多次组阁尝试均告失败，以色列将在明年初面临新的选举；Herzog 本周表示，他将竭尽所能避免这一局面。新一届 Knesset 定于11月10日宣誓就职。

中道派政客 Yair Lapid 在社交平台 X 上说：「真正困难的部分现在才开始，」并请以色列民众保持耐心。摆在反对派面前的抉择是：与阿拉伯政党结盟，还是放下竞选誓言，转而与内塔尼亚胡组成可能充满摩擦的联合政府。组阁谈判之外，Gadi Eisenkot 的阵营还可先与阿拉伯政党联手，在新一届 Knesset 选出新议长，从而掌控议会议程；已有数百名以色列人集会，敦促 Eisenkot 等人与阿拉伯政党联手——这种合作此前仅在2021年短暂出现过一次。

争议声中，内塔尼亚胡周五首次就结果公开表态，在 X 上发文称不得与阿拉伯政党组阁。最终结果公布前数小时，内塔尼亚胡与他领导的利库德集团放大了阿拉伯政党在外国协助下「偷走」选举的无根据指控；以色列媒体称，其党内成员指控的对象是卡塔尔，卡塔尔方面否认并斥之为「荒谬而危险」。阿拉伯人约占以色列人口的20%。

选举委员会在公布结果时表示，相关调查基于机密情报；委员会代理总干事 Dean Livne 表示，有关调查的报道「完全无据」，调查「不影响将呈交总统的最终结果，也不针对任何特定人群」。委员会另在一封信中称，「关于选举诚信遭受系统性破坏的指控毫无根据」，并要求国家安全总局（Shin Bet）在一周内提交调查结论。Shin Bet 则表示，其调查无意「影射」行使了合法民主投票权的任何一部分民众。

关联：跟进：以色列选举委员会主席要求辛贝特一周内查清疑似外国干预：涉卡塔尔资金争议，警方称无大规模舞弊证据

Israel's Final Election Results: Netanyahu's Bloc Falls Short at 53 Seats, Arab Parties Hold the Balance With 19

Israel's Central Elections Committee released the final results of the October 27 election early on Friday, October 30, confirming that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc won 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset and lost its parliamentary majority, the Associated Press reported. The main opposition bloc won 48 seats, and Arab-led parties secured the other 19, a historic showing. Forming a government requires at least 61 seats, and neither bloc has them.

Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, remains in charge. Parties must now meet and bargain for weeks among partners with very different positions — from ultra-Orthodox Jewish to secular to Arab-led parties — to assemble a majority.

The results still need to be certified and submitted to President Isaac Herzog next Wednesday, November 4. Herzog will then task someone with forming the new government — possibly Netanyahu, as leader of the party that received the most votes, or whoever party leaders believe is best suited. If multiple attempts to form a government fail, Israel faces a new election early next year; Herzog said this week he will do everything in his power to avoid that scenario. The new Knesset is expected to be sworn in on November 10.

'Now comes the truly hard part,' centrist politician Yair Lapid said on X, asking Israelis for patience. The opposition faces difficult decisions: partner with the Arab-led parties it campaigned against Netanyahu alongside, or set aside its vows and team up with Netanyahu in a potentially fractious unity government. Even before a government is formed, Gadi Eisenkot's bloc could join forces with the Arab parties to elect a new Knesset speaker, gaining control of the parliamentary agenda; hundreds of Israelis have rallied urging Eisenkot and others to take that step, which has happened only once before, briefly, in 2021.

In his first public comment on Friday, Netanyahu posted on X asserting it is forbidden to form a coalition with Arab parties. In the hours before the final results were announced, Netanyahu and his Likud party had amplified unsubstantiated allegations that Arab-led parties had 'stolen' the election, potentially with foreign assistance; Israeli media reported his party's members were accusing Qatar, which denied the allegations as 'ridiculous and dangerous.' Arabs make up about 20 percent of Israel's population.

Announcing the results, the election committee said the investigation into possible foreign interference was based on classified intelligence. Its acting director general, Dean Livne, warned that reports about the investigation had been 'entirely unfounded,' adding: 'It does not affect the final results that will be submitted to the president, nor does it concern any particular sector of the population.' The committee also said that 'allegations of systematic violations of electoral integrity are baseless,' and it wants findings from the Shin Bet security agency within a week. The Shin Bet, seeking to calm tensions, said its investigation was not meant to 'cast aspersions' on an entire section of the population that had exercised its right to vote in a democratic and lawful manner.

Related: Follow-Up: Israel Election Committee Chair Asks Shin Bet to Clarify Suspected Foreign Interference Within a Week

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：图：位于 Jerusalem 的以色列议会（Knesset）大楼（2022年资料图）。Clema12 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / The Knesset building in Jerusalem (file photo, 2022). Photo by Clema12, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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