以色列大选下周举行 民调：艾森科特阵营52席领先、内塔尼亚胡阵营50席 阿拉伯选民投票率或成组阁关键

据路透社10月19日报道，以色列的巴勒斯坦人领袖正呼吁占人口21%的阿拉伯少数族裔在下周大选中踊跃投票，谋求推翻总理内塔尼亚胡、终结以色列历史上最右翼的一届政府。

阿拉伯选民若高投票率，可能使组阁算术向由前军方首长加迪·艾森科特领导的反内塔尼亚胡阵营倾斜。领导联合阿拉伯名单党的曼苏尔·阿巴斯在以色列最大的阿拉伯城市拿撒勒的办公室对路透社说：「我们可以确保组建一个带来变革的新政府。」

民调显示，若今天举行选举，艾森科特由中间派、右翼与左翼政党拼成的阵营将赢得议会120席中的52席，内塔尼亚胡的宗教—民族主义阵营将赢得50席；阿巴斯的政党预计赢得5席，由三个阿拉伯政党组成的联合名单预计赢得8席。民调同时显示，艾森科特阵营得票将居首但不过半，组建少数派政府将需要阿拉伯方面的支持——无论是入阁还是阁外支持。

障碍在于艾森科特迄今拒绝与阿拉伯政党组阁，称双方缺乏共同价值观。他本月在一档播客中说：「我不会与任何阿拉伯政党结盟」，理由之一是这些政党拒绝把哈马斯称为恐怖组织。阿巴斯则认为，选后迫于席位算术现实，仍会有回旋空间。他说：「我们希望换掉右翼政府……结束战争与这些政策，制止定居点扩张，并处理未能制止定居者袭击的问题。」「我们也希望有一个为巴勒斯坦人与以色列人带来共同安全与和平的政府。」为争取犹太政党，阿巴斯采取了前所未有的做法：把其名单的第二位给了犹太裔前警官约阿夫·塞加洛维茨。他说：「这传递了与犹太社区、与犹太公民伙伴合作的信息。」

联合名单领导人艾哈迈德·提比表示，其阵营同样可以留在反对派发挥影响，已准备好组成「预防性集团」从外部支持一个政府；他说，联合名单将与艾森科特领导的政府一道投票「设立一个关于10月7日的官方调查委员会」——这是这位前军方首长及其伙伴列明的一项优先事项。提比说：「我们的首要任务是摆脱内塔尼亚胡、斯莫特里赫与本—格维尔的极右翼政府。」

政党组织者希望利用阿拉伯选民对内塔尼亚胡、财政部长斯莫特里赫与极右翼警察部长本—格维尔的愤怒，以及对其社区犯罪上升的沮丧情绪。斯莫特里赫此前提出一项在拿撒勒周边及阿拉伯人聚居的南部地区「犹太化」的计划，阿巴斯阵营的拉票人员上周在拿撒勒庞大的天使报喜教堂附近发放传单。74岁的加桑·布苏尔对拉票人员说：「这次比以往任何时候都更有必要大规模出来投票。」「危险比过去更大。」

民调机构方面，总部位于海法附近一个阿拉伯德鲁兹城镇的Stat-Net研究所预计，阿拉伯选民投票率将达63%，高于2022年的56%；以色列民调人士预计本届阿拉伯投票率将高于2022年与2020年。

路透社指出，这次选举是2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以来的首次大选，被视为对以色列任职时间最长的领导人内塔尼亚胡领导力的一次公投。阿巴斯本人有过入阁先例：2021年，他成为首位加入以色列联合政府出任部长的阿拉伯穆斯林，所在政府由纳夫塔利·贝内特领导——贝内特如今是艾森科特阵营中的右翼成员；那届政府在18个月后倒台，部分原因正是两人在被占领的约旦河西岸问题上的分歧。若各阵营都无法组建可行政府，可能出现一段政治僵局、然后在2027年重新选举，其间内塔尼亚胡继续掌权。内塔尼亚胡方面似乎认真看待艾森科特与阿拉伯方面结盟的可能性，其竞选活动使用了经篡改的图片与AI生成的视频，描绘对手与阿拉伯领袖拥抱；一段今年夏天发布的造假视频显示艾森科特跑过草地、扑向张开双臂的阿巴斯。（GSM 据路透社报道）

Ahead of Next Week's Israeli Election, Polls Put Eisenkot's Bloc at 52 Seats to Netanyahu's 50; Arab Turnout Could Decide Who Governs

Israel's Palestinian leaders are urging people in the minority Arab community to vote in big numbers in next week's election as they seek to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and topple the most right-wing government in the country's history, Reuters reported on October 19.

High turnout by the 21% Arab minority, who are Palestinian by heritage but Israeli by citizenship, could nudge Israel's complex coalition arithmetic in favour of an anti-Netanyahu bloc led by a former military chief, Gadi Eisenkot. "We can ensure the formation of a new government of change," Mansour Abbas, an Islamist dentist-turned-politician who heads the United Arab List party, told Reuters in his office in Nazareth, Israel's most populous Arab city.

Opinion polls suggest Eisenkot's patchwork bloc of centrist, right- and left-wing parties would win 52 of the Knesset's 120 seats if elections were held today. Netanyahu's religious-nationalist bloc would win 50 seats. Abbas' party is projected to win five seats, with a further eight going to the Joint List, a coalition of three Arab parties. The polls suggest Eisenkot's bloc will get the most votes but fall short of a majority, and will need Arab support, either as coalition partners or from outside, to prop up a minority government.

Eisenkot has so far ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties, citing a lack of shared values. "I will not align myself with any Arab party," Eisenkot said in a podcast this month, citing among other issues their refusal to label Hamas a terrorist organisation. But Abbas thinks there will be room for manoeuvre, perhaps after the vote, largely thanks to the cold, hard realities of electoral maths. "We want to replace the right-wing government... to end the wars and these policies, to stop the expansion of settlements and to address the failure to stop settler attacks," Abbas said. "We also want a government that brings shared security and peace for Palestinians and Israelis." To win over Jewish parties, Abbas has taken the unprecedented step of giving the number two spot on his slate to a Jewish former police official, Yoav Segalovitz. "It sends a message of partnership with the Jewish community and with Jewish citizens," Abbas said.

Ahmad Tibi, a Joint List leader, said his group was ready to form "a preventive block to support (a government) from the outside," and could wield just as much influence by staying in opposition. He said the Joint List would join an Eisenkot-led government in voting "to establish an official commission of inquiry into October 7," a stated priority of the former military chief and his partners. "We are placing as our top priority getting rid of the extreme right-wing government of Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir," Tibi said.

Party organizers in Nazareth are hoping to capitalize on Arab anger with Netanyahu, far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich and far-right police minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, as well as frustration with rising crime in their communities. Ahead of the vote, Smotrich proposed a plan to "Judaize" areas around Nazareth in the north and in southern Israel where most Arabs live. Last week, canvassers with Abbas' party handed out flyers near Nazareth's massive Church of the Annunciation. "There is a greater need this time than ever before to go out and vote in large numbers," said one of the people they approached, 74-year-old Gassan Bsoul. "The danger is greater than in the past," he added.

Israeli pollsters expect Arab voter turnout to be higher than in previous rounds of elections in 2022 and 2020. The Stat-Net Research Institute, based in an Arab Druze town near Haifa, projects turnout of 63%, compared with 56% in 2022.

The election will be the first since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, and is being viewed as a referendum on the leadership of Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader, Reuters noted. Abbas' own career shows such alliances can be made: in 2021 he became the first Arab Muslim to join an Israeli coalition as a minister, in a government led by Naftali Bennett, now a right-wing member of Eisenkot's bloc; that government collapsed after 18 months, partly over disagreements between the two men on the occupied West Bank. If any bloc fails to form a workable government, that could lead to a period of political deadlock, then fresh elections in 2027, with Netanyahu left in charge in the meantime. Netanyahu's campaign has used doctored images and AI-generated videos to depict his rivals embracing Arab leaders; one faked video, released over the summer, shows Eisenkot running through a meadow into the outstretched arms of Abbas. (GSM, via Reuters)

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：图：以色列最大阿拉伯城市拿撒勒的天使报喜教堂。路透社此次选情报道即发自拿撒勒。（供稿图）

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