跟进：以色列大选计票逾七成 内塔尼亚胡阵营预计54席仍未过半 谢克尔跌约2%

据路透社10月28日报道，以色列10月27日议会选举的计票持续推进，截至28日上午已统计约70.7%至71%的选票；以色列媒体预计，总理Benjamin Netanyahu领导的右翼、极右翼与极端正统派阵营将在120席的议会（Knesset）中赢得54席，其对手Gadi Eisenkot领导的反对阵营预计47席，代表以色列阿拉伯裔选民的政党预计19席。组建政府所需的61席过半线，两个阵营均未达到；Netanyahu的利库德集团仍为第一大党。最终结果预计周四公布，数字仍可能随计票变化。

本站此前报道的出口民调显示利库德以25席居第一大党、两大阵营同样未达61席；计票过七成后的预计席位显示，Netanyahu阵营的表现强于选前预期、但其原执政联盟的多数地位未能保住。路透社分析指出，反对阵营若没有阿拉伯裔政党的某种支持，难以推翻Netanyahu；谈判期间或在2027年举行新选举之前，Netanyahu将以看守总理身份留任。

Netanyahu于28日凌晨3时后在耶路撒冷的利库德总部对支持者发表讲话，呼吁组建「一个强大的右翼民族政府」。他强调以色列的军事成果，并提出与盟友、美国总统特朗普一道再次对伊朗采取联合军事行动的前景，称以色列与伙伴总统特朗普一起，面临「一劳永逸消除伊朗这一生存威胁的历史性机遇」。Eisenkot则承认Netanyahu仍以看守总理身份在任，但称其已失去公众支持、应退出政坛，并警告其可能出于政治目的利用安全议题。

市场方面，谢克尔28日贬值约2%至1美元兑3.1185谢克尔，迈向16个月来最差单日表现；特拉维夫基准股指TA-125下跌约3%。Capital Economics首席新兴市场经济学家William Jackson表示，初步结果为Netanyahu留任提供了更多路径，但由此产生的任何政府都可能脆弱。

Follow-up: With Over 70% of Votes Counted in Israel's Election, Netanyahu Bloc Projected at 54 Seats, Still Short of a Majority; Shekel Falls About 2%

According to Reuters on October 28, counting continued in Israel's October 27 parliamentary election, with about 70.7% to 71% of votes tallied by the morning of October 28. Israeli media projected that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties would win 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, the opposition bloc led by his rival Gadi Eisenkot 47 seats, and parties representing Israelis of Arab descent 19 seats. Neither bloc reached the 61 seats needed for a majority, and Netanyahu's Likud remained the largest single party. Definitive results were expected on Thursday, and the projections may still change as counting continues.

GSM previously reported exit polls showing Likud as the largest party with 25 seats and neither bloc reaching 61. With more than 70% counted, Netanyahu's bloc performed more strongly than expected before the vote, but did not retain the majority of his outgoing coalition. Reuters noted that opponents have little hope of unseating him without some form of backing from Arab parties, and that he would remain caretaker prime minister during coalition negotiations or until a new election in 2027.

Addressing Likud supporters after 3 a.m. at the party's Jerusalem headquarters, Netanyahu called for the formation of "a strong, right-wing national government." He highlighted Israel's military successes and raised the prospect of renewed joint military action against Iran alongside U.S. President Donald Trump, saying Israel faced "a singular historical opportunity, together with our partner President Trump, to remove the existential threat of Iran once and for all." Eisenkot acknowledged Netanyahu remained in office as caretaker but said the prime minister had lost public support and should retire from politics, warning he might use security for political ends.

In markets, the shekel weakened around 2% to 3.1185 per dollar, on track for its worst day in 16 months, and Tel Aviv's benchmark TA-125 index fell around 3%. William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the initial results offered more paths for Netanyahu to remain in power, though any government that emerged was unlikely to be robust.

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：位于耶路撒冷的以色列议会（Knesset）大楼正面与国旗。照片：Clema12，CC BY-SA 4.0，经Wikimedia Commons。

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