跟进：以色列央行维持基准利率3.25%不变：连续三次降息后在大选前一周暂停，2026年增长预测5.6%

耶路撒冷——以色列央行10月21日将短期利率维持不变，在通胀稳定的情况下选择在大选前一周暂停降息。据路透社报道，央行将基准利率维持在3.25%。该行去年11月和今年1月曾降息，随后因与伊朗的冲突及对供给驱动型通胀飙升的担忧暂停，今年5月、7月和9月又恢复降息、连续三次下调。

以色列9月年通胀率从8月的1.5%微升至1.6%，仍处于央行1%至3%的目标区间内。央行在声明中说：「鉴于地缘政治紧张局势，不确定性仍然很高。不过，在评估期内，以色列的风险溢价保持在与2023年10月7日之前相似的水平，谢克尔出现贬值。」路透社调查的15名经济学家此前全部预期此次不作调整。

据央行研究部门的工作人员预测，以色列国内生产总值（GDP）预计2026年增长5.6%、2027年增长7.5%。央行表示，这些预测的大幅上修，很大程度上反映了以色列企业在海外生产的预期贡献较大；若剔除海外生产，增长率预计为2026年3.4%、2027年5.1%。

以色列将于10月27日举行大选。路透社10月20日的民调预告报道称，本轮宽松周期自去年11月开始以来已累计五次、每次25个基点的降息，3.25%为四年低点；该报道还提到，以色列经济第二季度按年率计算增长15.4%，谢克尔兑美元跌至九个月低点。

Bank of Israel Holds Benchmark Rate at 3.25%, Pausing After Three Straight Cuts a Week Before the Election; 2026 Growth Forecast at 5.6%

JERUSALEM — The Bank of Israel left short-term interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, October 21, after three successive cuts, opting for a pause ahead of a general election next week despite stable inflation, Reuters reported. The central bank held its benchmark rate at 3.25%. It had cut rates last November and January before pausing due to the conflict with Iran and fears of a spike in supply-driven inflation. It then resumed cuts in May, July and September.

The annual inflation rate edged up to 1.6% in September — well within the bank's 1% to 3% target range — from 1.5% in August. "Uncertainty remains high in view of the geopolitical tensions," the bank said in a statement. "However, during the reviewed period, Israel's risk premium remained at levels similar to those prior to October 7, 2023, and the shekel depreciated." All 15 economists polled by Reuters had expected no move.

According to the staff forecast of the bank's research department, GDP is expected to grow by 5.6% in 2026 and by 7.5% in 2027. Much of these upward revisions reflect the large expected contribution of production abroad by Israeli firms, the bank said. Excluding production abroad, growth was forecast at 3.4% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027.

Israel holds a general election on October 27. A Reuters poll preview published on October 20 said there have been five 25-basis-point cuts in the current easing cycle, which began last November, taking the benchmark rate to a four-year low of 3.25%; it also reported that the economy grew at an annualized 15.4% in the second quarter while the shekel weakened to a nine-month low against the US dollar.

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：图：以色列银行（以色列央行）位于耶路撒冷的总部大楼（资料图）。照片：Uri Farkash，CC BY-SA 4.0，经Wikimedia Commons。The Bank of Israel headquarters in Jerusalem (file photo). Photo: Uri Farkash, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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