跟进：以色列大选出口民调：利库德集团25席成第一大党，两大阵营均未达61席组阁线
以色列10月27日举行第26届议会选举，选出议会120个席位，这是2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以色列以来该国首次全国大选。投票站于当地时间晚10时关闭，三家主要电视台随后公布的出口民调显示，总理 Benjamin Netanyahu 领导的利库德集团预计赢得25席、成为第一大党，但其右翼与宗教政党阵营合计仅50席，未达到组阁所需的61席。
出口民调显示，前以色列国防军总参谋长 Gadi Eisenkot 领导的 Yashar 党预计获得23席（第12频道与第13频道）至21席（Kan 11公共广播公司）；主要反对党阵营合计预计53席，阿拉伯政党预计17席。两大阵营均未过半：反对党与阿拉伯政党合计虽达70席，但各方并未表示将联合组阁。
本次选举投票踊跃。以色列中央选举委员会公布，截至当地时间下午4时，投票率已达55.7%，为1973年有统计以来同一时点的最高纪录，各地投票站全天排起长队。
出口民调只是初步预测，并非正式计票结果，席位分布仍可能随计票推进而变化，正式结果定于11月4日公布。计票完成后，总统 Isaac Herzog 将咨询各党团，提名他认为最有机会组阁的议员；被提名者有28天时间谈判组建联合政府，并可延长14天。新政府就职前，Netanyahu 领导的看守政府继续执政。利库德集团虽保住第一大党地位，Netanyahu 能否继续执政，将取决于接下来数周的组阁谈判。
关联：以色列10月27日举行议会选举投票：733万选民选第26届议会，12018个投票站开放至晚10时
Follow-Up: Israel Exit Polls Put Likud First With 25 Seats, but Neither Bloc Reaches the 61 Seats Needed to Govern
Israel held elections for the 26th Knesset on October 27, filling all 120 seats in the country's first national vote since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. After polls closed at 10 p.m. local time, exit polls released by Israel's three major television networks projected that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud would emerge as the largest party with 25 seats, while his right-wing and religious bloc was projected at 50 seats in total, short of the 61 needed to form a government.
The exit polls projected 23 seats for Yashar, the party led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, in the Channel 12 and Channel 13 surveys, and 21 seats according to Kan 11. The main opposition parties were projected at 53 seats combined and Arab parties at 17, leaving neither major bloc with a majority. The opposition and Arab factions together would hold 70 seats, though that does not mean they would agree to form a government together.
Turnout was exceptionally high. Israel's Central Elections Committee reported that 55.7 percent of eligible voters had cast ballots by 4 p.m. local time, the highest figure recorded at that hour since measurements began in 1973, with long lines reported at polling stations across the country.
The exit polls are preliminary projections, not an official count, and the seat distribution could change as ballots are tallied in the coming days; official results are scheduled to be published by November 4. Once results are certified, President Isaac Herzog will consult with the parties and nominate the lawmaker he believes has the strongest chance of forming a government; that candidate will have 28 days to negotiate a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. Netanyahu's outgoing government remains in power until a new government takes office, and his political future will turn on weeks of coalition negotiations despite Likud finishing first.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：位于耶路撒冷的以色列议会大楼。本届议会组成将由计票结果决定。照片：Agmonsnir，CC BY-SA 4.0，经维基共享资源。 / The Knesset building in Jerusalem, Israel. Photo: Agmonsnir, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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