跟进：以色列大选投票率创49年最快：前五小时31.5%选民已投票，谢克尔升近1%至三周高位
以色列10月27日举行议会选举投票，据以色列中央选举委员会数据，开票后前五小时已有31.5%的合资格选民投下选票，是自1977年大选以来最快的投票进度；同日以色列货币谢克尔升值近1%，升至1美元兑3.05谢克尔的三周高位。1977年那场选举被称为「政坛翻转」，右翼阵营在以色列历史上首次上台执政。
市场方面，谢克尔周一曾跌至1美元兑3.12谢克尔，周二随高投票率消息反弹。交易员用来押注或对冲选举结果的谢克尔短期波动率指标，已升至2024年年中以色列空袭伊朗部分核设施以来的最高水平。摩根大通（JPMorgan）此前预计，谢克尔可能随周二选举结果向任一方向波动多达3%。有分析人士认为，高投票率可能预示反对总理 Benjamin Netanyahu 领导的利库德集团（Likud）的政党表现强劲。
Netanyahu 是以色列在任时间最长的领导人，累计执政19年，其右翼执政联盟的政策在国内引发分歧，也加深了以色列的国际孤立。他的主要对手是前总参谋长、安全事务鹰派人物 Gadi Eisenkot，获得右翼、中间派政党以及式微左翼残余力量的支持。民调显示选情胶着，两人通往执政的道路都不平坦。
以色列全国投票站于当地时间晚10时关闭，关闭后电视台将公布出口民调，给出结果的最初指向；最终计票结果预计10月30日出炉，官方结果定于11月4日正式公布。
关联：以色列10月27日举行议会选举投票：733万选民选第26届议会，12018个投票站开放至晚10时
Follow-Up: Israel Election Turnout Fastest in 49 Years as 31.5% Vote in First Five Hours; Shekel Jumps Nearly 1% to a Three-Week High
Israel voted in its parliamentary election on October 27, and the Central Elections Committee reported that 31.5% of eligible voters had cast their ballots within the first five hours, the fastest turnout since the country's 1977 election. The shekel jumped nearly 1% on Tuesday to a three-week high of 3.05 per dollar. The 1977 vote became known as "the upheaval" after it brought the right to power for the first time in Israeli history.
The currency had dropped to 3.12 shekels per dollar on Monday. Short-term shekel volatility gauges, which traders are using to bet on or hedge the election fallout, spiked to their highest level since Israel bombed some of Iran's nuclear facilities in mid-2024. JPMorgan has predicted the shekel could swing as much as 3% in either direction depending on Tuesday's election result. Analysts believe the high turnout could point to a strong showing for parties opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud bloc.
Netanyahu is Israel's longest-serving leader, with 19 years in office, but his right-wing coalition's policies have been divisive at home and have deepened international isolation. His main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff and security hawk, aims to unseat him with the support of parties on the right and centre, as well as the rump of an increasingly marginalised left. Opinion polls show a close race, with neither leader facing an easy path to power.
Polling stations close at 10 p.m. local time, when Israeli television channels will air exit polls giving the first indications of the outcome. The final tally is expected by October 30, and official results are to be formally published on November 4.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：位于 Jerusalem 的以色列议会（Knesset）大楼（Wikimedia Commons，CC0）。Image: The Knesset building in Jerusalem (Wikimedia Commons, CC0).
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