新西兰大选最后民调：工党30.7%领先国家党26.4%，机会党5.1%握关键少数

新西兰惠灵顿消息，新西兰 11 月 7 日星期六大选前公布的最后民调显示，两大阵营均难单独组阁，中间派机会党可能握有关键少数。《邮报》与淡水战略公司的最后民调显示，工党支持率 30.7%，领先国家党的 26.4%；机会党 5.1%，刚过进入议会的 5% 门槛；绿党 13%，新西兰优先党 12%，行动党 9.8%，毛利党 2%。按该民调推算，国家党、行动党与新西兰优先党合计 59 席，距组阁所需的 61 席差 2 席；工党、绿党与毛利党合计 55 席。

1News 与维里安公司的最后民调显示，国家党 30%、工党 29%、绿党 16%、行动党 10%、新西兰优先党 8%、机会党 6%；按该模型推算，现执政联盟将获 58 席，距多数差 3 席，机会党的 7 席握有平衡力量。纳税人联盟与居里亚公司的民调显示，国家党 28.9%、工党 28.4%，两大阵营各获 60 席，将出现悬峙议会。

选民最关切的议题为生活成本（64%）与医疗（45%）。提前投票 10 月 26 日开始，截至 11 月 3 日星期二已有 1,250,057 人投票，高于 2023 年同期的 1,007,928 人。两党领导人 11 月 5 日星期四作最后拉票，总理克里斯托弗·拉克森称选情将胶着到底，工党领袖克里斯·希普金斯表示希望在圣诞节前组建工党领导的政府；最后电视辩论于星期四晚间举行。投票将于 11 月 7 日星期六晚 7 时结束，含海外特别选票在内的最终计票将于 11 月 27 日公布。

关联：

跟进：新西兰：大选提前投票进行中 两项民调指向相反 机会党或成关键

New Zealand Final Polls: Labour Leads National 30.7% to 26.4%; Opportunity Party Holds Balance at 5.1%

WELLINGTON, New Zealand — Final polls before New Zealand's general election on Saturday, November 7, show neither major bloc able to govern alone, with the centrist Opportunity Party potentially holding the balance of power. The final poll by The Post and Freshwater Strategy put Labour at 30.7 percent, ahead of National on 26.4 percent; the Opportunity Party was on 5.1 percent, just above the five percent threshold for entering Parliament; the Greens were on 13 percent, New Zealand First on 12 percent, ACT on 9.8 percent and Te Pāti Māori on 2 percent. On those numbers, National, ACT and New Zealand First would hold a combined 59 of the 120 seats in Parliament, two short of the 61 needed to govern, while Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would hold 55.

The final 1News–Verian poll put National at 30 percent and Labour at 29 percent, with the Greens on 16 percent, ACT on 10 percent, New Zealand First on 8 percent and Opportunity on 6 percent; on that modelling, the governing coalition would win 58 seats, three short of a majority, with Opportunity's seven seats holding the balance. A Taxpayers' Union–Curia poll put National at 28.9 percent and Labour at 28.4 percent, with the two blocs tied on 60 seats each, meaning a hung Parliament.

Voters' top concerns were the cost of living, cited by 64 percent, and healthcare, cited by 45 percent. Early voting began on October 26, and by Tuesday, November 3, 1,250,057 votes had been cast, compared with 1,007,928 at the same point in 2023, according to Electoral Commission data. Party leaders made their final appeals on Thursday, November 5: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said the election would go down to the wire, while Labour leader Chris Hipkins said Labour hoped to form a Labour-led government before Christmas; the final televised debate was held on Thursday night. Polls close at 7 p.m. on Saturday, November 7, and the final count, including special votes cast from overseas, will be released on November 27.

This outlet published a preview of the New Zealand election on November 4; this report covers only the new developments — the final three polls and the closing campaign appeals.

Related:

New Zealand: Advance Voting Under Way as Two Polls Point in Opposite Directions Before November 7 Election

来源：《邮报》与淡水战略公司民调

发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）

图片来源：图：新西兰惠灵顿的国会大厦与「蜂巢」大楼。Wikimedia Commons，CC0。 / Photo: Parliament House and the Beehive in Wellington, New Zealand. Wikimedia Commons, CC0.

GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story

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