跟进：新西兰：大选提前投票进行中 两项民调指向相反 机会党或成关键

新西兰大选提前投票正在进行，正式投票日为11月7日（周六），提前投票持续至11月6日。然而最新两项主要民调指向相反方向，没有明确的赢家或执政组合浮现，最终政府人选很可能由选后谈判决定。

10月28日公布的 RNZ-Reid Research 民调（10月20日至26日在线访问1000名合资格选民）显示，工党支持率30.6%，执政的国家党24.8%，绿党14.5%，行动党10.1%，新西兰优先党9.9%，机会党7.2%，为该党在这一民调系列中的最高值。按此推算，工党、绿党与机会党合计64席，国家党、行动党与优先党合计54席（议会共120席）。

而10月27日公布的 1News-Verian 民调则显示国家党29%、工党27%领先倒置，推算国家党阵营61席、工党阵营56席，机会党8席可能握有平衡权。两项民调在总理人选上也相反：RNZ 民调中工党领袖 Chris Hipkins 以23.3%对17.1%领先总理 Christopher Luxon，Verian 民调则以24%对18%让 Luxon 领先。

两项民调都把机会党放在5%门槛之上，若成真该党将首次进入议会。9月 Ipsos 议题监测（访问1003人）显示，通胀与生活成本以63%居选民关切之首，其次是医疗与医院44%、经济34%与失业21%。选举委员会说，初步结果将于选举夜晚7点起陆续公布，官方结果定于11月27日宣布；选民登记已于10月25日午夜截止。

New Zealand: Advance Voting Under Way as Two Polls Point in Opposite Directions Before November 7 Election

Advance voting is under way in New Zealand ahead of the general election on Saturday, November 7, with advance voting running until Friday, November 6. The two most recent major polls point in opposite directions, with no clear winner or coalition grouping, so post-election negotiations are likely to decide the next government.

The RNZ-Reid Research poll, published on October 28 after surveying 1,000 eligible voters online between October 20 and 26, put Labour on 30.6 percent and the governing National Party on 24.8 percent, with the Greens on 14.5 percent, ACT on 10.1 percent, New Zealand First on 9.9 percent and the Opportunity Party on 7.2 percent, its highest result in the series. On those figures Labour, the Greens and Opportunity would hold 64 seats in the 120-seat parliament, against 54 for National, ACT and New Zealand First combined.

The 1News-Verian poll released on October 27 told a different story, putting National on 29 percent and Labour on 27 percent, with a seat projection of 61 for the National bloc against 56 for Labour, the Greens and Maori parties, and Opportunity on eight seats potentially holding the balance of power. The polls also disagreed on preferred prime minister: Labour leader Chris Hipkins led Prime Minister Christopher Luxon 23.3 to 17.1 percent in the RNZ poll, while the Verian poll put Luxon ahead 24 to 18 percent.

Both polls place the Opportunity Party above the 5 percent threshold, which would bring it into parliament for the first time. The September Ipsos Issues Monitor, surveying 1,003 New Zealanders, found inflation and the cost of living the top concern at 63 percent, followed by healthcare at 44 percent, the economy at 34 percent and unemployment at 21 percent. Preliminary results will be released from 7pm on election night, with official results due on November 27; enrolment closed at midnight on October 25.

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：照片：新西兰议会蜂巢楼，Paasikivi 摄，Wikimedia Commons，CC BY-SA 4.0 授权 / Photo: the Beehive, Wellington, by Paasikivi, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story

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