法国第三季度GDP意外收缩0.1%：出口下滑1.7%拖累增长，投资连续两季下降、已实现增长仅0.2%
法国国家统计局（INSEE）10月30日发布第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）初值：经季节与工作日调整的GDP环比下降0.1%，与市场预期的增长0.1%背道而驰；第二季度增速经修正后为零增长，第一季度则收缩0.2%——这是法国经济今年第二次出现单季负增长。
拖累主要来自外贸。第三季度出口下降1.7%（第二季度为增长2.8%），其中运输设备出口大跌9.1%，航空航天产品是主要拖累项；进口微增0.1%。外贸对当季增长的贡献为负0.6个百分点。
投资继续走弱：固定资本形成总额下降0.6%，连续第二个季度下滑（第二季度为下降0.5%），其中住户投资下降1.7%、政府投资下降0.5%、非金融企业投资下降0.3%，建筑与运输设备投资是主要弱项。
内需并非全无亮点。家庭消费增长0.4%，比第二季度的0.2%加快，电动汽车购买回升带动运输设备消费，电力支出回升也使能源消费增长1.2%；政府消费增长0.3%。最终内需（不含库存变动）对增长贡献正0.1个百分点，库存变动再贡献正0.4个百分点，但仍不足以抵消外贸的拖累。
INSEE同时给出全年展望的关键数字：到第三季度末，2026年的「已实现增长」（即假设第四季度零增长时的全年增速）仅为0.2%；要达到财政部0.5%的全年增长目标，第四季度GDP需要增长约0.9%。
据路透社报道，法国经济部长 Roland Lescure 表示，法国经济正因「来自外部与内部的冲击前所未有地叠加」而陷入停滞；同日公布的法国10月通胀初值升至3.4%，为2023年12月以来最高——增长停滞与物价再加速同时压在欧元区第二大经济体身上。修正值将于11月底发布。完整发布见法国国家统计局第三季度GDP初值。
关联：欧元区第三季度GDP增长0.4%高于预期：爱尔兰增长5.5%居首，法国收缩0.1%
关联：法国10月通胀初值升至3.4%创近三年新高：能源价格同比涨24.1%，调和通胀达3.8%
关联：意大利第三季度GDP环比零增长：同比增长0.8%低于预期，服务与农业增长抵住工业下滑
关联：西班牙第三季度GDP环比增长0.6%：同比增速升至2.7%，内需贡献2.6个百分点撑起增长
France GDP Shrinks 0.1% in Third Quarter as Exports Slump: Investment Falls Again and Carry-Over Growth Stands at Just 0.2%
France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) published its preliminary estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on October 30: GDP, adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects, fell 0.1% from the previous quarter, missing economists' expectations of a 0.1% increase. Growth in the second quarter was revised to zero and GDP had contracted 0.2% in the first quarter, making this the second quarter of negative growth in France this year.
Foreign trade was the main drag. Exports fell 1.7% in the third quarter after rising 2.8% in the second, with exports of transport equipment plunging 9.1% and aerospace products the main negative driver, while imports edged up 0.1%. Foreign trade subtracted 0.6 percentage points from quarterly growth.
Investment weakened further: gross fixed capital formation fell 0.6%, a second consecutive quarterly decline after a 0.5% drop in the second quarter, as household investment fell 1.7%, government investment 0.5% and non-financial corporate investment 0.3%, with construction and transport equipment the weakest areas.
Domestic demand was not without bright spots. Household consumption rose 0.4%, accelerating from 0.2% in the second quarter, as purchases of electric vehicles lifted transport-equipment spending and higher electricity spending pushed energy consumption up 1.2%; government consumption rose 0.3%. Final domestic demand excluding inventories contributed a positive 0.1 percentage points to growth and inventory changes a further positive 0.4 points, not enough to offset the trade drag.
INSEE also gave the key full-year figure: at the end of the third quarter, France's acquired growth for 2026 — the annual rate that would result if GDP were flat in the fourth quarter — stood at just 0.2%, and reaching the Finance Ministry's 0.5% full-year target would require fourth-quarter growth of about 0.9%.
According to Reuters, Economy Minister Roland Lescure said the French economy was at a standstill because of an unprecedented combination of external and internal shocks; flash inflation for October, released the same day, accelerated to 3.4%, the highest since December 2023, leaving the euro area's second-largest economy facing stalled growth and rising prices at once. Revised figures are due at the end of November. The full release is available from INSEE, preliminary estimate of GDP, third quarter 2026.
Related: Euro Area GDP Grows 0.4% in Third Quarter, Beating Forecasts
Related: France Flash Inflation Rises to 3.4% in October
Related: Italy GDP Flat in Third Quarter: Annual Growth Slows to 0.8%
Related: Spain GDP Grows 0.6% in Third Quarter: Annual Rate Rises to 2.7%
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：法国 Paris 的 La Défense 商务区高楼与远处的 Eiffel Tower（资料图）。Guilhem Vellut 摄，CC BY 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / The La Défense business district towers in Paris, France, with the Eiffel Tower in the distance (file photo). Photo by Guilhem Vellut, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
