加拿大8月GDP环比基本持平0.0%低于预估：零售涨1.2%撑住、批发跌1.4%拖累，9月预估再跌0.1%
加拿大统计局（StatCan）10月30日发布按行业计算的国内生产总值（GDP）数据：8月实际GDP环比基本持平，变动幅度为0.0%，低于此前先行预估的增长0.2%，也低于经济学家调查预期的0.2%。这是加拿大经济连续第二个月基本停滞，7月数据经修订后同为0.0%。
20个行业中只有9个在8月扩张。结构上，商品生产行业微增0.1%，服务生产行业微降0.1%，总量在零线附近拉锯。
撑住8月的是零售业：零售贸易增长1.2%，其中汽车及零部件经销商增长1.8%，食品饮料零售商增长1.3%，综合商品零售商增长1.5%。制造业也增长0.3%，机械制造大涨3.8%、石油炼厂增长4.2%，部分抵消了运输设备制造下降3.1%的影响；铁路运输增长3.6%，金融与保险增长0.2%。
拖累主要来自批发贸易：批发下降1.4%，是当月最大拖累项，其中汽车及零部件批发大跌4.4%。公共部门合计下降0.2%，公用事业下降0.4%。
更值得注意的是前瞻数字：统计局给出的9月先行预估为实际GDP下降0.1%，制造业与采矿、采石及油气开采下滑，仅被公用事业与批发的回升部分抵消。按此估算，加拿大经济第三季度整体增长0.3%，远低于第二季度0.8%的增速。第三季度正式估值与9月修订数将于11月30日发布。
这组数据公布于加拿大央行本周将基准利率上调25个基点至2.5%之后两天：经济连续两月停滞、第三季度动能明显减弱，与能源价格和关税带来的通胀压力并存，是央行后续决策面对的两难组合。完整发布见加拿大统计局8月按行业GDP。
Canada GDP Flat in August, Missing the Forecast Rise: Retail Up 1.2% Offset by a 1.4% Wholesale Drop, September Seen Down 0.1%
Statistics Canada published its gross domestic product by industry figures on October 30. Real GDP was essentially unchanged in August, at 0.0 percent month over month, below both the agency's earlier advance estimate of a 0.2 percent increase and economists' expectations of 0.2 percent growth. It was the second consecutive flat month for the Canadian economy, with July revised to 0.0 percent as well.
Only 9 of the 20 industrial sectors expanded in August. Goods-producing industries edged up 0.1 percent while services-producing industries edged down 0.1 percent, leaving the total hovering at the zero line.
Retail trade carried the month, rising 1.2 percent, led by motor vehicle and parts dealers at 1.8 percent, food and beverage retailers at 1.3 percent and general merchandise retailers at 1.5 percent. Manufacturing rose 0.3 percent as machinery manufacturing jumped 3.8 percent and petroleum refineries rose 4.2 percent, partly offset by a 3.1 percent drop in transportation equipment manufacturing. Rail transportation grew 3.6 percent, and finance and insurance rose 0.2 percent.
The main drag was wholesale trade, down 1.4 percent and the largest detractor in August, with motor vehicle and parts wholesalers plunging 4.4 percent. The public sector aggregate fell 0.2 percent and utilities fell 0.4 percent.
The forward-looking figures were softer still. Statistics Canada's advance estimate puts September real GDP down 0.1 percent, as declines in manufacturing and in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction were only partly offset by gains in utilities and wholesale trade. On that basis the Canadian economy expanded 0.3 percent in the third quarter overall, well below the second quarter's 0.8 percent pace. The official third-quarter estimate and revised September figures are due November 30.
The data landed two days after the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 2.5 percent this week: two flat months and a visibly weaker third quarter, set against tariff- and energy-driven inflation pressure, frame the dilemma facing the central bank's next decisions. The full release is available from Statistics Canada, GDP by industry, August 2026.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：加拿大 Toronto 天际线与 CN Tower，前景为 GO Transit 列车与在建工地（资料图）。Bernard Spragg 摄，公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Toronto's skyline and the CN Tower in Canada, with GO Transit trains and construction in the foreground (file photo). Photo by Bernard Spragg, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
