意大利第三季度GDP环比零增长：同比增长0.8%低于预期，服务与农业增长抵住工业下滑
意大利国家统计局（Istat）10月30日发布第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）初值：经季节与日历效应调整、按2020年价格计算的链式量度GDP环比持平，增幅为0.0%，低于市场预期的0.1%小幅增长。
同比看，第三季度GDP增长0.8%，比第二季度的1.0%放缓0.2个百分点。分季度看，意大利经济环比增速逐季走低：第一季度增长0.3%，第二季度放缓至0.2%，第三季度停在原地。
从供给侧看，环比零增长是几股力量相抵的结果：服务业与农业的增加值保持增长，工业增加值则出现下降。
从需求侧看，国内需求为增长作出正贡献，净外需则作出负贡献，两者相抵后总量持平。
日历因素方面，第三季度比上一季度多4个工作日、比去年同期多1个工作日；2026年全年比2025年多3个工作日。
另一个关键数字是「已实现增长」：按日历调整口径，2026年的已实现增长率在第三季度末为0.8%——也就是说，即使第四季度GDP环比同样持平，意大利经济全年仍可实现0.8%的增长。意大利政府本月刚把2026年增长目标上调到1%，按初值推算，实现这一目标需要第四季度明显加速。
Istat说明，本次初值在季度结束约30天后发布，方法与完整的季度国民核算一致，数据后续仍可能修订；欧元区第三季度GDP的成员国明细中，意大利同样列为环比持平。
同一天Istat还公布，意大利10月通胀初值同比跳升至5.4%——增长停滞与物价再加速同时出现，是意大利经济眼下最难解的组合。完整发布见意大利国家统计局第三季度GDP初值。
关联：欧元区第三季度GDP增长0.4%高于预期：爱尔兰增长5.5%居首，法国收缩0.1%
关联：意大利10月通胀初值跳升至5.4%远超预期：受管制能源价格同比涨59.5%，调和通胀达5.6%
关联：西班牙第三季度GDP环比增长0.6%：同比增速升至2.7%，内需贡献2.6个百分点撑起增长
Italy GDP Flat in Third Quarter: Annual Growth Slows to 0.8% as Services and Farming Offset an Industrial Drop
Italy's National Institute of Statistics (Istat) published its preliminary estimate for third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on October 30: GDP, expressed in seasonally and calendar-adjusted chained volume terms with reference year 2020, was unchanged from the previous quarter, a 0.0% reading that fell short of the 0.1% increase economists had expected.
From a year earlier, GDP rose 0.8%, slowing by two tenths from the second quarter's 1.0%. The quarterly path has been losing momentum through the year: growth of 0.3% in the first quarter eased to 0.2% in the second before stalling in the third.
On the supply side, the flat quarterly reading was the net result of opposing movements: value added rose in services and in agriculture, while it fell in industry.
On the demand side, domestic demand made a positive contribution to growth and net foreign demand a negative one, leaving the total unchanged.
Calendar effects were sizeable: the third quarter of 2026 had four more working days than the previous quarter and one more than the third quarter of 2025, and 2026 as a whole has three more working days than 2025.
The carry-over, or acquired, growth rate for 2026 stood at 0.8% at the end of the third quarter on a calendar-adjusted basis, meaning the economy would still grow 0.8% over the full year even if GDP were flat again in the fourth quarter. Italy's government this month raised its 2026 growth target to 1%, a goal that on these figures would require a clear pick-up in the final quarter.
Istat noted that the preliminary estimate is released about 30 days after the end of the quarter using the same procedures as the full quarterly national accounts, and remains subject to revision; Eurostat's euro area release the same day likewise listed Italy as flat on the quarter.
Istat also reported on October 30 that Italy's flash inflation jumped to 5.4% year on year in October, leaving the economy with the difficult combination of stalled growth and re-accelerating prices. The full release is available from Istat, preliminary estimate of GDP, third quarter 2026.
Related: Euro Area GDP Grows 0.4% in Third Quarter, Beating Forecasts
Related: Italy Flash Inflation Jumps to 5.4% in October
Related: Spain GDP Grows 0.6% in Third Quarter: Annual Rate Rises to 2.7%
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：意大利 Milan 的 Porta Nuova 商务区天际线（资料图）。Francesco Ungaro 摄，CC0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / The Porta Nuova business district skyline in Milan, Italy (file photo). Photo by Francesco Ungaro, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons.
