波兰10月通胀快估降至3.5%低于预期：燃油价格环比大跌9.7%，回落到央行目标区间上限
波兰统计局（GUS）10月30日公布快估数据：波兰2026年10月消费者价格同比上涨3.5%，低于9月的4.1%，也低于市场预期的3.7%，回落到波兰国家银行（NBP）1.5%至3.5%目标区间的上限。
环比看，消费者价格10月下降0.4%，跌幅大于市场预期的0.2%。
燃油是本月环比下跌的决定性因素：私人交通用燃油与润滑油价格环比大跌9.7%，但同比仍上涨21.7%（9月为31.6%）。分析认为，跌幅与10月3日起恢复的燃油税费优惠安排有关。
其他分项走势分化：食品与非酒精饮料价格环比上涨0.3%、同比下降0.1%；电力、燃气与其他燃料价格环比上涨1.6%、同比上涨6.0%。
据 ING 估算，剔除食品与能源的核心通胀10月同比降至3%以下，低于9月的3.1%——此项为机构估算，波兰统计局快估本身不公布核心通胀。
波兰货币政策委员会（RPP）定于11月4日决定利率。本次公布的为快估（flash estimate），10月完整数据定于11月中旬发布。同一天公布的欧元区其他数据走势不一：意大利通胀初值跳升至5.4%，法国升至3.4%，西班牙持平于4.9%。
关联：意大利10月通胀初值跳升至5.4%远超预期：受管制能源价格同比涨59.5%，调和通胀达5.6%
关联：法国10月通胀初值升至3.4%创近三年新高：能源价格同比涨24.1%，调和通胀达3.8%
Poland Flash Inflation Falls to 3.5% in October, Below Forecasts, as Fuel Prices Drop 9.7% on the Month to the Top of the Central Bank's Target Band
Statistics Poland (GUS) published its flash estimate on October 30 showing that consumer prices in Poland were 3.5% higher in October 2026 than a year earlier, down from 4.1% in September and below the 3.7% consensus forecast, returning to the top of the National Bank of Poland's (NBP) 1.5% to 3.5% target band.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell 0.4% in October, a larger decline than the 0.2% expected.
Fuel drove the monthly drop: prices of fuels and lubricants for private transport fell 9.7% from September, although they remained 21.7% above their level a year earlier, down from 31.6% in September. Analysts linked the fall to the return of a fuel tax relief programme on October 3.
Other components moved in opposite directions: food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 0.3% on the month but were 0.1% cheaper than a year earlier, while electricity, gas and other fuels rose 1.6% on the month and 6.0% on the year.
ING estimates that core inflation excluding food and energy fell below 3% year on year in October, from 3.1% in September; that figure is an analyst estimate, as the GUS flash release does not publish a core rate.
The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) decides on interest rates on November 4. The figures are a flash estimate, with the full October breakdown due in mid-November. Readings elsewhere in Europe the same day diverged: Italy's flash inflation jumped to 5.4%, France's rose to 3.4%, and Spain's held at 4.9%.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：Warsaw 老城城堡广场与王宫（资料图）。Rhododendrites 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Castle Square and the Royal Castle in Warsaw's Old Town (file photo). Photo by Rhododendrites, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
