AP-NORC中期选举民调：47%选民盼民主党掌控众议院、46%盼掌控参议院 特朗普支持率36%
华盛顿消息——美联社与Chicago大学NORC公共事务研究中心（AP-NORC）10月15日发布中期选举专题民调：47%的选民希望民主党掌控联邦众议院，46%希望民主党掌控参议院，希望共和党继续掌控两院的均为38%，另有15%尚未决定。民调于10月8日至12日进行，距11月3日中期选举投票日不到四周。
总统支持率方面，36%的选民认可特朗普总统的执政表现，64%不认可。分项来看，约四分之三的选民不认可他处理经济的方式（74%），不认可其处理生活成本的比例达79%，约三分之二不认可其外交政策处理；治安是他相对较强的议题，45%的选民认可他处理治安的表现。个人与政党好感度方面，约三分之一的选民对特朗普（35%）、副总统万斯（35%）与共和党（36%）持正面看法，对民主党持正面看法的为40%。
选民最关心的议题集中在经济民生：85%的选民把经济列为投票时最重要的议题之一，84%列入生活成本，69%列入医疗，64%列入与伊朗的战争，移民与治安各为45%，超级智能为35%。民调还显示，约八成选民认为国家运行方式需要「重大改变」或「彻底变革」；约三分之二对美国政治现状感到悲观，仅约一成表示乐观，约半数选民对民主党、共和党以及民主制度本身的前景感到悲观。
据美联社报道，投票热情方面，约四分之三的民主党选民认为在今年11月的中期选举中投票「极其重要」，共和党选民中这一比例约为六成；总体上约三分之二的登记选民认为投票「极其重要」。共和党已连续两年同时掌控国会两院，本次选举将决定众议院全部席位与参议院部分席位的归属。
本次民调由AP-NORC使用NORC的AmeriSpeak概率样本库，以线上与电话（座机和手机）方式访问全美1,119名成年人，其中包括925名登记选民；全体成年人的抽样误差为正负3.9个百分点，登记选民的抽样误差为正负4.2个百分点。调查结果由AP-NORC于10月15日对外发布。
关联：美国选举制度（四）：中期选举：2026年11月3日改选什么
关联：特朗普支持率跌至33%创历次民调新低 中期选举倒计时两周
关联：州长希利呼吁对大麻 repeal 公投案投反对票 民调显示71%选民反对
AP-NORC Midterm Poll: 47% Want Democrats to Control the House and 46% the Senate; Trump Approval at 36%
WASHINGTON — Nearly half of U.S. voters would like Democrats to take control of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections, according to a midterm survey released October 15 by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research: 47% favor Democratic control of the U.S. House of Representatives and 46% favor Democratic control of the Senate, compared with 38% who would prefer Republicans to remain in charge of both chambers, while 15% are unsure. The poll was conducted October 8-12, less than four weeks before Election Day.
Overall, 36% of voters approve of how President Donald Trump is handling his job, while 64% disapprove. About three quarters disapprove of his handling of the economy (74%) and 79% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, while about two-thirds disapprove of his handling of foreign policy. Crime remains one of his stronger issues, with 45% approving. About a third of voters have a favorable opinion of Trump (35%), Vice President JD Vance (35%) and the Republican Party (36%), while four in 10 have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.
Economic concerns top the issue list: 85% of voters say the economy is among the most important issues in their vote, 84% say the same about the cost of living, 69% cite health care, 64% cite the war with Iran, and 45% cite immigration and crime, while 35% cite super intelligence. About 8 in 10 voters say the country needs substantial change or complete and total upheaval in how it is run. Two-thirds feel pessimistic about the state of U.S. politics, only 1 in 10 say they feel optimistic, and half are pessimistic about the future of both parties and of democracy as a whole.
According to the Associated Press, about three-quarters of Democratic voters say voting in this November's midterm elections is "extremely" important, compared with roughly 6 in 10 Republicans; overall, about two-thirds of registered voters call voting "extremely" important. Republicans have controlled both chambers of Congress for the past two years, and the election will decide all House seats and part of the Senate.
The nationwide poll was conducted October 8-12, 2026, using the AmeriSpeak Panel, the probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews were conducted with 1,119 adults, including 925 registered voters. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, and the margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. AP-NORC released the findings on October 15.
Related: America's Electoral System (4): The Midterms: What Is on the Ballot on November 3, 2026
Related: Trump's Approval Falls to a Record-Low 33% in New Polls, Two Weeks Before the Midterms
Related: Gov. Healey Urges No Vote on Cannabis Repeal Referendum; Poll Shows 71% of Voters Oppose
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：美国国会大厦西侧夕阳景（资料图）· 美国国会建筑师办公室（Architect of the Capitol）摄，公共领域（维基共享资源） / The west front of the U.S. Capitol at sunset (file photo) · Photo by the Architect of the Capitol, public domain (Wikimedia Commons)
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