法国2027年总统选举民调：勒庞首轮以34%至36%领先、梅朗雄以18%至19%居第二
巴黎 — 据路透社11月9日报道，法国2027年总统选举的最新民调显示，极右翼的国民联盟领导人勒庞（Marine Le Pen）与极左翼「不屈法国」领导人梅朗雄（Jean-Luc Mélenchon）进一步巩固了领先位置，两极对峙的格局加深。
这项民调由 Toluna Harris Interactive 为法国 M6 电视台与 RTL 电台进行，11月3日至5日访问了2101名登记选民。在全部五个首轮对决设想中，勒庞都以34%至36%的得票率居首，上月同类民调中这一数字为35%至37%。
梅朗雄在五个设想中都位居第二，得票率为18%或19%，有望首次进入第二轮投票。他曾参加2012年、2017年与2022年三届总统选举，从未进入第二轮。「不屈法国」上周五发布总统竞选纲领，提出退出北约、把主要国防企业国有化等主张。
中间派人选明显落后：前总理 Édouard Philippe 得票率为11%至14%，社会民主派的 Raphaël Glucksmann 为11%至13%，保守派的 David Lisnard 约为9%。
在第二轮设想中，勒庞对所有对手都占优：对梅朗雄为68%对32%，对 Glucksmann 为60%，对 Philippe 为58%。
法国总统选举定于2027年春季举行。现任总统马克龙的第二个、也是最后一个五年任期即将结束。民调同时显示，58%的受访者把购买力列为最关心的议题，安全以26%居第二。勒庞曾在2017年与2022年两次进入第二轮，都败给马克龙。
关联：跟进：法国勒庞正式启动总统竞选：民调支持率32%至33.5%居首，承诺恢复秩序与边境管控
关联：「不屈法国」发布总统竞选纲领：梅朗雄承诺退出北约、把主要国防企业国有化
（来源：路透社）
France 2027 Presidential Poll: Le Pen Leads the First Round at 34%-36%, Mélenchon Second at 18%-19%
PARIS — Far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) have consolidated their lead in voting intentions for France's 2027 presidential election, according to a poll released on Monday, Reuters reported on November 9, as political polarization deepens.
The Toluna Harris Interactive survey, conducted for television channel M6 and radio station RTL among 2,101 registered voters on November 3-5, put Le Pen ahead in the first round with between 34% and 36% of voting intentions, depending on the scenarios tested. A similar poll last month had her at 35% to 37%.
Mélenchon placed second in all five scenarios, at 18% or 19%, which would put him in the runoff for the first time. He ran for president in 2012, 2017 and 2022 without ever reaching the second round. France Unbowed published its presidential programme on Friday, pledging to leave NATO and nationalize major defence companies.
Centrist candidates trailed well behind: former prime minister Édouard Philippe stood at 11% to 14%, the social democrat Raphaël Glucksmann at 11% to 13%, and the conservative David Lisnard at about 9%.
In runoff scenarios, Le Pen led every potential opponent: 68% to 32% against Mélenchon, 60% against Glucksmann and 58% against Philippe.
The presidential election is due in spring 2027. President Emmanuel Macron's second and final five-year term is coming to an end. The poll also found that 58% of respondents named purchasing power as their top concern, with security second at 26%. Le Pen reached the runoff in both 2017 and 2022 and lost to Macron each time.
Related: Follow-Up: Le Pen Formally Launches Presidential Campaign, Leading Polls at 32%-33.5%
(Source: Reuters)
来源：路透社
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：法国国民联盟领导人勒庞2026年3月23日摄（资料图）。图：Elekes Andor，CC BY 4.0，经维基共享资源，本站档案图复用 / Marine Le Pen on March 23, 2026 (file photo). Photo by Elekes Andor, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons, GSM archive reuse
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