跟进：德克萨斯州南部暴雨持续，天气预报中心维持过量降雨轻微风险至11月9日清晨，局地累计可达8英寸
美国国家气象局天气预报中心（WPC，位于马里兰州学院公园）11月8日发布的过量降雨讨论，维持德克萨斯州中南部与南部地区的过量降雨「轻微风险」（四级中的第二级），有效时段为11月8日12时（UTC）至11月9日12时（UTC），即美中时间11月8日清晨6时至11月9日清晨6时；其中韦布县（Webb）至科珀斯克里斯蒂（Corpus Christi）一带为最高威胁区，预报中心保留「增强型」轻微风险的表述，并称不排除后续针对性升级。
预报中心表示，集合预报混合平均显示这一时段普遍雨量3至6英寸（约75至150毫米），局地最高可达8英寸（约200毫米），峰值雨强一般为每小时1至2英寸；降雨量超过3英寸的邻近概率在德克萨斯州南部大部（主要在10号州际公路以南）达60%至90%。尽管该地区山洪指导雨量门槛较高，持续的对流格局仍使其山洪机会高于常态，最佳降雨时段为8日下午晚些时候至夜间、延续至9日清晨。
此前，科珀斯克里斯蒂预报办公室已于11月6日晚发布洪水观察，持续至周一上午；11月8日清晨5时04分（美中时间），该办公室对杜瓦尔县（Duval）西南部与韦布县东南部发出本次过程首个山洪警报（至上午8时），当时两县部分地区已降1至3英寸雨量，警报称还可能再降2至4英寸。
Follow-Up: South Texas Rain Continues as Weather Prediction Center Keeps Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall Through Early Monday, November 9; Local Totals to 8 Inches
The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) in College Park, Maryland, kept a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall across south-central and South Texas in its November 8 discussion, valid 12Z November 8 to 12Z November 9 (6 a.m. CST Sunday to 6 a.m. CST Monday). The highest threat lies in the area from Webb County toward Corpus Christi, where the center retained its "enhanced" Slight Risk wording and said a targeted upgrade was possible.
The center said the REFS blended mean quantitative precipitation forecast is a widespread 3 to 6 inches, with as much as 8 inches locally during the full period, at peak rates generally between 1 and 2 inches per hour. Neighborhood probabilities for more than 3 inches remain at 60 to 90 percent over much of South Texas, mainly south of I-10. Despite fairly high flash flood guidance thresholds, the center said the longevity of the convective pattern gives the area a better-than-normal opportunity for flash flooding, with the best chances late Sunday afternoon and evening into early Monday morning.
Earlier, the Corpus Christi forecast office issued a flood watch on Friday evening, November 6, running through Monday morning, and issued the event's first flash flood warning at 5:04 a.m. CST Sunday for southwestern Duval County and southeastern Webb County, valid until 8 a.m., after 1 to 3 inches of rain had fallen there, with 2 to 4 more inches possible.
来源：美国国家气象局天气预报中心
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：天气预报中心11月8日发布的24小时定量降水预报图（有效期至11月9日12时UTC）WPC 24-hour Day 1 QPF issued November 8, 2026 — NOAA/NWS, Public Domain
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
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