南非选民调查：九成认为地方选举自由公正，对选举委员会信任降至81%

南非人文科学研究委员会（HSRC）11月6日在位于米德兰德的全国计票中心发布2026年选举满意度调查（ESS）结果：绝大多数选民认为11月4日举行的2026年地方政府选举自由而公正——90%的受访选民相信选举程序是自由的，91%认为选举是公正的。

这项调查受南非选举委员会（IEC）委托进行。据南非媒体报道，调查人员在选举日走访了全国九省300个投票站、访问选民13,198人。HSRC研究员本·罗伯茨（Ben Roberts）博士在发布会上表示，调查结果显示，公众对选举公正性的看法依然强劲，反映出公众对该国选举程序的持续信心。HSRC自1999年起在每逢选举时进行这项调查，其结果是判定南非选举是否自由公正的衡量依据之一，并将作为官方选举宣告的一部分宣读。

调查显示，95%的选民满意自己的选票得到了保密，这一比例与历届选举记录的高水平一致。罗伯茨说：「选民对选票保密的信心依然格外高，而且长期以来保持得格外稳定。2026年，95%的选民满意自己的选票保持了秘密。」此外，83%的选民表示完全或非常有信心自己的选票会被准确清点。

表示信任IEC的选民提到的理由包括：该委员会的专业、胜任、公平与公正，计票准确，以及其历次主持选举的记录；积极的个人投票体验与对选票保密的信心也被频繁提及。一名受访者说：「我认为IEC承担着这个国家最难的工作之一，而且他们做得很好。」

但调查同时显示，公众对IEC的信任呈逐年缓慢下滑之势：2026年信任度为81%，低于2024年的85%、2021年的89%和2019年的93%，2016年时为91%。5%的选民表示不信任或强烈不信任该委员会，14%持中立、不确定或未作答。

不信任者给出的理由包括感知到的腐败与不诚实、对计票准确性的怀疑、政治偏见以及过往争议。罗伯茨说：「在感知到的腐败与不诚实方面，有关腐败、贿赂和欺诈行为的指控是突出的不信任理由；对计票与选举结果的担忧，表现为受访者怀疑选票是否被准确清点、妥善核算并反映在最终结果中。」调查还发现，部分受访者表示，新闻与社交媒体上流传的传言和以往选举争议的报道，加深了他们的不信任。

各省之间的信任度存在差异：东开普省最高，为87%；北开普省85%、自由州省84%、西开普省83%；姆普马兰加省81%、林波波省80%；西北省与豪登省各79%；夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省最低，为72%。

HSRC指出，选民对选举过程的积极体验，与对民主和政治机构的更广泛不满同时存在；调查结果提示，在选民对选举程序保持相当信心的同时，维护公众信任仍然重要。南非选举委员会预计在处理完各项异议后于周日宣布2026年地方政府选举的最终结果。

关联：南非选举安保收官通报：投票日85起事件立57案、选举期政治谋杀增至21宗

关联：南非：地方选举初步计票非国大以约32%暂领先民主联盟的30% 已计票约12%

（来源：南非人文科学研究委员会）

South Africa Survey: 90% Saw Local Elections as Free, 91% as Fair, as Trust in the IEC Slips to 81%

The Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) released the results of its 2026 Election Satisfaction Survey (ESS) on November 6 at the National Results Operations Centre in Midrand: the overwhelming majority of voters regarded South Africa's 2026 Local Government Elections, held on November 4, as free and fair, with 90% expressing confidence that the electoral procedures were free and 91% satisfied that they were fair.

The survey was conducted on behalf of the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC). According to South African media reports, fieldworkers interviewed 13,198 voters at 300 voting stations across all nine provinces on Election Day. Briefing the media, HSRC researcher Dr Ben Roberts said the survey found that perceptions of electoral integrity remained strong, reflecting continued public confidence in the country's electoral processes. The HSRC has conducted the ESS since 1999; its findings are used as one of the measures to determine whether elections in South Africa are free and fair, and the results are read out as part of the official election declaration.

The results showed that 95% of voters were satisfied that their votes remained secret, consistent with the high levels of confidence in ballot secrecy recorded in previous elections. "Voter confidence in ballot secrecy remains exceptionally high and remarkably consistent over time. In 2026, 95% of voters were satisfied that their vote remained secret," Dr Roberts said. Furthermore, 83% of voters indicated that they were either completely or very confident that their votes would be accurately counted.

Voters who expressed confidence in the IEC cited its perceived professionalism, competence, fairness and impartiality, as well as accurate vote counting and the Commission's record of administering elections. Positive personal experiences with electoral officials and confidence in ballot secrecy also featured prominently. One respondent said: "I think the IEC has one of the most difficult jobs to do in this country and they do it well."

Despite these largely positive assessments, the survey highlighted a gradual decline in trust in the IEC. Trust in the Commission stood at 81% in 2026, down from 85% in 2024, 89% in 2021 and 93% in 2019; in 2016, it stood at 91%. Meanwhile, 5% of voters said they distrusted or strongly distrusted the Commission, while 14% were neutral, uncertain or declined to respond.

The 5% who expressed distrust cited perceived corruption and dishonesty, doubts about the accuracy of vote counting, political bias and past controversies. "On perceived corruption and dishonesty, allegations of corruption, bribery and fraudulent practices are prominent reasons for distrust. Concerns about vote counting and electoral results: respondents express doubts about whether votes are accurately counted, properly accounted for and reflected in the final results," said Dr Roberts. The survey also highlighted concerns about information circulating in the news and on social media, with some respondents saying rumours and reports about previous electoral disputes had contributed to their mistrust.

Trust levels differed by province. The Eastern Cape recorded the highest level of trust in the IEC at 87%, followed by the Northern Cape at 85%, the Free State at 84% and the Western Cape at 83%. Trust stood at 81% in Mpumalanga and 80% in Limpopo, while North West and Gauteng each recorded 79%. KwaZulu-Natal recorded the lowest level of trust at 72%.

The HSRC noted that positive experiences of the electoral process coexist with broader dissatisfaction with democracy and political institutions, and that the findings suggest maintaining public trust remains important even as voters retain considerable confidence in the electoral process. The IEC is expected to announce the final results of the 2026 Local Government Elections on Sunday, after objections have been considered and resolved.

Related: South Africa Election Security Tally: 57 Dockets From 85 Voting Day Incidents, Politically Motivated Murders Reach 21

Related: South Africa: ANC Narrowly Leads Democratic Alliance in Early Municipal Election Results With About 12 Percent of Votes Counted

(Source: Human Sciences Research Council)

来源：南非人文科学研究委员会

发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）

图片来源：图：南非人文科学研究委员会研究员本·罗伯茨博士11月6日在米德兰德全国计票中心发布2026年选举满意度调查结果。南非政府新闻署（SAnews）供图，该署明示媒体可免费使用其图片并注明出处。 / Photo: HSRC researcher Dr Ben Roberts briefs the media on the 2026 Election Satisfaction Survey at the National Results Operations Centre in Midrand on November 6. Photo by SAnews; SAnews states media may use its pictures at no cost with credit.

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