跟进：Swift天文台再入时间收窄至11月4日凌晨：太空军预测美东时间3时30分、误差11小时
美国国家航空航天局（NASA）11月2日更新预测：Neil Gehrels Swift天文台的再入大气层时间已收窄至11月4日（周三）。据美国太空军的最新预测，这台约3,200磅重的航天器将于美东时间11月4日凌晨3时30分左右再入，预测误差为11小时。本站此前报道，该台原预计在11月6日前后再入，此次预测把时间提前并大幅收窄了窗口。
NASA表示，航天器的大部分将在穿越大气层时烧毁，但仍会有部分部件残存。由于Swift的轨道倾角较低，残存部件的可能落区被限制在南纬20.6度至北纬20.6度之间；残骸对地面人员造成伤害的风险约为2,100分之一。NASA与太空军将继续监测再入过程并更新预测。
Swift天文台2004年发射升空，原定主任务期两年，实际运行近22年，以三台望远镜研究宇宙最强爆炸伽马射线暴，并为全球观测设施提供快速警报，累计探测逾2,000次伽马暴。
（来源：美国国家航空航天局）
Follow-Up: Swift Observatory Re-Entry Narrowed to Early Nov. 4: Space Force Predicts 3:30 a.m. EST, Plus or Minus 11 Hours
NASA updated its forecast on November 2: the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory is now expected to re-enter Earth's atmosphere on Wednesday, November 4. As of Monday, the U.S. Space Force predicted that the roughly 3,200-pound spacecraft will re-enter at approximately 3:30 a.m. EST on November 4, with an uncertainty of 11 hours. GSM previously reported the observatory was expected to re-enter around November 6; the new forecast moves the event earlier and narrows the window considerably.
NASA expects most of the spacecraft to burn up as it travels through the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive. Due to Swift's low inclination, re-entry locations of any surviving fragments are limited to between 20.6 degrees south latitude and 20.6 degrees north latitude, and the risk of harm to anyone on Earth is approximately 1 in 2,100. NASA and the Space Force will continue to monitor the re-entry and update predictions.
Launched in 2004 with a two-year prime mission, Swift operated for nearly 22 years, using three telescopes to study gamma-ray bursts, the most powerful explosions in the cosmos, detecting more than 2,000 of them and sending rapid alerts to observatories worldwide.
(Source: NASA)
来源：美国国家航空航天局
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：NASA的Neil Gehrels Swift天文台示意图。该台以三台望远镜观测宇宙中最强的爆炸伽马射线暴。NASA科学可视化工作室绘制，公共领域，经Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: Rendering of NASA's Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. By NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
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- 2026-11-02 12:33跟进：Swift天文台再入时刻提前至11月4日：太空军预测美东凌晨3时30分前后、误差11小时
- 2026-11-02 21:06跟进：Swift天文台再入时间收窄至11月4日凌晨：太空军预测美东时间3时30分、误差11小时本篇
