CNN中期选举民调：特朗普支持率32%创本届任期新低 民主党国会选情领先共和党10个百分点
据CNN报道，CNN委托SSRS于10月15日至18日进行的最新民调显示，总统特朗普的支持率为32%，创下其本届任期的新低；在全国登记选民的国会选举意向中，民主党以49%对39%领先共和党10个百分点，是CNN民调自2020年大选前以来的最大领先幅度。超过四分之三的选民表示，他们把这次选举视为改变华盛顿现状的机会。
据CNN报道，分群体看，民主党在非裔选民中领先70个百分点，在拉丁裔选民中领先40个百分点，在女性选民中领先21个百分点，在年轻成年人中领先31个百分点，在独立选民中领先15个百分点。今年约六成选民表示，他们的中期选举投票是在向特朗普传递一个信息，其中表示反对者与表示支持者的比例约为二比一。
经济与生活成本是选民最关心的议题。把经济列为首要关切的登记选民中，民主党以46%对37%领先共和党。特朗普在经济议题上的支持率为27%，在通胀议题上为23%；三分之二的美国人认为他的政策使经济状况变得更差，其中包括约三分之一的共和党人；近七成选民表示，他在努力降低物价方面做得还不够。经济之后，其次是政府腐败（19%）和美国民主的状况（18%）。
据CNN报道，特朗普在共和党选民中的支持率为74%，为这项民调的新低，低于2025年2月的88%；在没有大学学历的白人选民中，他的支持率为45%，低于本届任期开始时的63%。目前只有30%的公众认为美国总体情况良好，26%认为经济状况良好，2018年中期选举前分别为55%和69%。若民主党赢得国会，41%的选民认为国家会变得更好，37%认为会变得更差，22%认为不会有差别。CNN指出，十年中期的选区重划等因素，可能限制民主党实际赢得的席位增幅。
这项民调由SSRS于10月15日至18日进行，样本为从概率抽样面板中随机抽取的1,701名美国成年人，含1,206名登记选民，访问方式为在线问卷或电话真人访问。全样本的抽样误差为正负2.9个百分点，登记选民样本为正负3.3个百分点。约13%的选民表示已经投出选票，已投票者以70%对29%倾向民主党候选人；尚未投票的选民以46%对41%倾向民主党候选人。2026年中期选举的选举日为11月3日。
关联：美国选举制度（四）：中期选举：2026年11月3日改选什么
关联：特朗普支持率跌至33%创历次民调新低 中期选举倒计时两周
CNN Midterm Poll: Trump's Approval Hits a New Low of 32% as Democrats Lead Republicans by 10 Points in Congressional Vote
According to CNN, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS from October 15 to 18 puts President Donald Trump's approval rating at 32%, a new low for his current term. Among registered voters nationwide, Democrats lead Republicans 49% to 39% in voters' choice for their own congressional district, a 10-point advantage that is the largest for Democrats in CNN polling since just before the 2020 election. More than three-quarters of voters say they see this election as their chance to change things up in Washington.
According to CNN, Democrats lead among Black voters by 70 percentage points, among Latino voters by 40 points, among women by 21 points and among younger adults by 31 points, and they lead among independents by 15 points. Roughly six in 10 voters this year say their midterm vote will send a message about Trump, and by a 2-to-1 margin that message is one of opposition rather than support.
The economy and the cost of living are voters' most important issue. Among registered voters who call the economy their top concern, Democrats lead Republicans 46% to 37%. Trump's approval rating stands at 27% on the economy and 23% on inflation. Two-thirds of Americans, including roughly one-third of Republicans, say his policies have made economic conditions worse, and nearly seven in 10 say he has not gone far enough in trying to reduce prices. Behind economic concerns, the other top concerns are corruption in the government (19%) and the state of U.S. democracy (18%).
According to CNN, Trump's approval rating among Republicans is 74%, a new low in the poll, down from 88% in February 2025. Among White Americans without college degrees, his approval stands at 45%, down from 63% at the start of his second term. Just 30% of the public now says things in the United States are generally going well and 26% call economic conditions good; before the 2018 midterms those figures were 55% and 69%. Asked about a Democratic win, 41% of voters say the country would be better off if Democrats won control of Congress, 37% say it would be worse off and 22% say it would not make any difference. CNN noted that mid-decade redistricting and other factors could limit the seat gains a national margin of that size would produce.
The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from October 15 to 18 among a random national sample of 1,701 U.S. adults drawn from a probability-based panel, including 1,206 registered voters; surveys were conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, and 3.3 points among registered voters. About 13% of voters say they have already cast their ballot, breaking 70% to 29% for the Democratic candidate; voters who have yet to vote divide 46% for the Democrat to 41% for the Republican. Election Day for the 2026 midterms is November 3.
Related: America's Electoral System (4): The Midterms: What Is on the Ballot on November 3, 2026
Related: Trump's Approval Falls to a Record-Low 33% in New Polls, Two Weeks Before the Midterms
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图片来源：图：美国国会大厦西侧（资料图）。国会大厦建筑师办公室（Architect of the Capitol）摄，公共领域（Public Domain），经维基共享资源。
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