30 余名科学家《科学》评估称冰冻圈已越出地球安全运行空间，以 11700 年全新世稳定期为参照
斯德哥尔摩大学斯德哥尔摩韧性中心领衔的国际团队在《科学》（Science）发表评估《冰冻圈已越出地球安全运行空间》。研究由 30 余名科学家完成，参与机构包括波茨坦气候影响研究所、清华大学、北京师范大学等。研究以过去 11700 年全新世的相对稳定条件为参照，为冰盖、山地冰川、海冰、多年冻土与积雪组成的冰冻圈界定预防性安全边界，分析变量包括陆地冰、海冰、积雪与多年冻土四项。
研究结论认为，当前及已锁定的变化正使冰冻圈越来越远离全新世稳定条件，安全运行空间已被越出，并可能触发加速退化的反馈循环。论文第一作者苏勃（Bo Su）表示，冰冻圈已越出其地球安全运行空间。作者呼吁决策者以该框架为科学依据，制定限制温室气体与黑碳排放的预防性目标。论文在 Antalya 举行的 COP31（11 月 9 日至 20 日）期间发布，DOI 为 10.1126/science.aef5636。
图中是南极洲 Brunt 冰架的航拍影像
Assessment by More Than 30 Scientists in Science Finds the Cryosphere Has Moved Beyond Its Planetary Safe Operating Space
An international team led by researchers at the Stockholm Resilience Centre at Stockholm University published 'The cryosphere beyond a planetary safe operating space' in Science. The assessment, compiled by more than 30 scientists including researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Tsinghua University and Beijing Normal University, defines precautionary boundaries for the cryosphere — ice sheets, mountain glaciers, sea ice, permafrost and snow cover — using the relatively stable conditions of the past 11,700 years, the Holocene, as the reference point, and analyses four variables: land ice, sea ice, snow cover and permafrost.
The study concludes that current and committed changes are taking the cryosphere increasingly far from Holocene conditions, that its safe operating space has been transgressed, and that reinforcing feedback loops risk accelerating further degradation. Lead author Dr Bo Su said the cryosphere has already exceeded its planetary safe operating space. The authors urge policymakers to use the framework as a scientific basis for precautionary targets to limit greenhouse gas and black carbon emissions. The paper was published during COP31 in Antalya, Turkey (November 9–20), with DOI 10.1126/science.aef5636.
来源：《科学》
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图中是南极洲 Brunt 冰架的航拍影像。Wikimedia Commons — Michael Studinger, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Public domain
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