《金融时报》分析俄罗斯统计局泄密数据：战争相关死亡至少45万，实际数字可能达55万
英国《金融时报》11月13日报道，对据称从俄罗斯联邦国家统计局（Rosstat）泄漏的人口数据的分析显示，自2022年2月全面入侵乌克兰至今年夏季，与战争相关的俄罗斯死亡人数至少有45万。
这批数据来自白俄罗斯黑客组织「网络游击队」与乌克兰黑客组织Silent Crow声称窃得的逾1100万份死亡证明记录。《金融时报》的分析说，其中约41万人的死亡被直接归类为与冲突相关，死者大多是军人，也包括一部分平民；分析人员又依据死者的年龄、地点与身份等特征，在波克罗夫斯克等前线地带另识别出约1.2万名具战斗年龄的男性死者。
报道指出，死亡登记存在大量延迟，例如2022年马里乌波尔围城期间的死者直到今年才被登记，因此真实数字可能高于泄密数据本身：到今年8月初，实际死亡人数可能达到约55万；若按既有速度简单推算，到今年年底可能达到约65万。数据还显示，战争死者的平均年龄已从2022年的34岁升至去年的40岁。
俄罗斯与乌克兰都不公布各自的伤亡数字，俄罗斯自2022年9月起停止发布官方战斗损失统计。俄罗斯统计局此前承认其系统在10月29日至11月1日遭到网络攻击，但否认数据库被攻破或信息外泄；泄密数据的真实性尚未得到独立证实。Mediazona与BBC俄语组依据公开讣告等资料逐一核对的名单，到11月8日已确认约28.6万名阵亡军人的姓名。
关联：黑客组织称窃得俄罗斯统计局逾1100万份死亡证明数据：分析称逾41.2万份与战争明确相关，俄统计局否认数据库被攻破
（来源：英国《金融时报》）
FT Analysis of Leaked Rosstat Data Puts Russia's War-Related Deaths at At Least 450,000, With the True Toll Possibly Near 550,000
An analysis of population data said to have been leaked from Russia's Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) shows that at least 450,000 war-related Russian deaths were recorded between the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and this past summer, the Financial Times reported on November 13.
The data come from more than 11 million death-certificate records that the Belarusian hacker group Cyber Partisans and the Ukrainian group Silent Crow say they stole. The FT analysis found that about 410,000 of the deaths were directly classified as conflict-related, most of them soldiers but including some civilians; analysts then identified roughly 12,000 more dead men of fighting age in frontline areas such as Pokrovsk by examining the profiles, places and status of the deceased.
The report noted extensive delays in death registration - deaths from the 2022 siege of Mariupol, for example, were registered only this year - so the true figure may be higher than the leaked data itself: by early August, actual deaths could have reached about 550,000, and on a simple extrapolation could reach about 650,000 by the end of this year. The data also show the average age of the war dead rising from 34 in 2022 to 40 last year.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine publishes its casualty figures, and Russia stopped releasing official combat-loss statistics in September 2022. Rosstat has acknowledged a cyberattack on its systems between October 29 and November 1 but denies its database was breached or data leaked; the leaked data's authenticity has not been independently verified. A name-by-name list compiled by Mediazona and the BBC Russian Service from public records had confirmed about 286,000 dead soldiers as of November 8.
(Source: Financial Times)
来源：英国《金融时报》
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：位于保加利亚普罗夫迪夫的俄罗斯军人公墓（资料图）。照片为公共领域作品，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The Russian Military Cemetery in Plovdiv, Bulgaria (file photo). Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
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