西班牙官方选前民调：工人社会党支持率33.3%居首，人民党与呼声党合计够不到过半门槛
西班牙社会学研究中心公布大选选前大型民调：工人社会党预计得票率33.3%，可望赢得众议院350席中的134至143席；人民党得票率25.5%，预计98至106席，比现在的137席明显下滑；呼声党得票率18.4%，预计57至65席。按这份民调，人民党与呼声党即使联手也够不到176席的过半门槛。这份民调成为11月13日竞选开跑首日各党攻防的焦点。
这项调查在10月7日至30日共完成45,074次电话访问，覆盖50个省与休达、梅利利亚共4,190个市镇，是该中心规模最大的选前调查之一。其他政党方面，广泛阵线得票率4.7%，加泰罗尼亚共和左翼3.1%，我们能党仅1.1%。33.2%的受访者认为桑切斯是最合适的首相人选。
需要注意的是，这次访问在10月底结束，没有计入交通大臣普恩特辞职等11月的事件；同期多家私人民调机构的平均结果与官方民调明显不同，平均显示人民党以约31%的支持率领先、工人社会党约27%。社会学研究中心主席特萨诺斯公开为这份民调的方法辩护。最终结果要等11月29日投票揭晓。
（来源：西班牙社会学研究中心）
Spain's Official Pre-Election Poll: Socialists Lead at 33.3%, PP and Vox Together Short of a Majority
Spain's Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) has published its large pre-election survey: the Socialist Party leads with an estimated 33.3% of the vote, which would give it between 134 and 143 of the 350 seats in Congress. The People's Party is put at 25.5%, or 98 to 106 seats — well down from its current 137 — and Vox at 18.4%, or 57 to 65 seats. On these numbers, the PP and Vox together would still fall short of the 176 seats needed for an absolute majority. The poll became a central talking point on November 13, the first day of the campaign.
The study is based on 45,074 telephone interviews conducted between October 7 and 30 across 4,190 municipalities in all 50 provinces plus Ceuta and Melilla, making it one of the centre's largest pre-election exercises. Among other parties, Frente Amplio is estimated at 4.7%, Republican Left of Catalonia at 3.1% and Podemos at just 1.1%. Pedro Sánchez is the preferred choice for prime minister of 33.2% of respondents.
The fieldwork ended in late October, so it does not capture November events such as the transport minister's resignation, and its findings differ sharply from the average of private polls, which puts the PP ahead at about 31% to the Socialists' 27%. CIS president José Félix Tezanos has publicly defended the study's methodology. The definitive answer comes at the ballot box on November 29.
(Source: Centre for Sociological Research (CIS), Spain)
来源：西班牙社会学研究中心
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：位于马德里的西班牙众议院大楼。Javier Perez Montes 摄，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The Congress of Deputies building in Madrid. By Javier Perez Montes, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
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