菲律宾2028年民调：杜特尔特阵营以38%领跑众议员阵营偏好、马科斯阵营仅10%
马尼拉——菲律宾民调机构Momentum Research最新公布的2026年10月全国调查显示，在为2028年全国大选选择选区众议员候选人的阵营偏好上，38%的菲律宾成年人倾向与杜特尔特家族结盟的候选人，26%倾向独立候选人，16%倾向反对派阵营候选人，只有10%选择与总统马科斯结盟的候选人；另有6%尚未决定、3%拒绝回答。《马尼拉时报》11月6日报道了这一结果。
在总统人选方面，OCTA Research第三季度「Tugon ng Masa」调查（9月28日至10月4日面对面访问全国1,200名成年人，误差范围正负3个百分点，11月4日发布）显示，在假设的总统对决中，副总统莎拉·杜特尔特以40%对33%领先前副总统莱妮·罗布雷多。但莎拉的支持率已从第一季度的46%、第二季度的43%逐季下滑，本轮7个百分点的差距是今年三轮调查中最小的。
总统府新闻官克莱尔·卡斯特罗11月4日回应称，马科斯总统并未关注民调结果，正专注于施政以及即将举行的东盟峰会等事务；她说，现在还不是投票的时候，真正的结果要到2028年投票当天才会揭晓。菲律宾距离下届全国大选还有约18个月。
这两项民调进行期间，莎拉·杜特尔特正处于参议院弹劾审判之中，辩方定于11月9日开始举证。OCTA表示，弹劾审判的进展可能影响了受访者的选择，后续轮次的调查仍需验证这一趋势。
（来源：《马尼拉时报》）
Philippines 2028 Polls: Duterte Camp Leads Congressional Preference at 38%, Marcos Camp at 10%
MANILA — Candidates identified with the Duterte family were the preferred choice of 38 percent of Filipino adults for district representatives in the 2028 elections, a survey by Momentum Research showed. The October 2026 National Momentum Survey found that 26 percent favored independent candidates, 16 percent preferred opposition-aligned candidates and only 10 percent chose candidates aligned with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.; 6 percent were undecided and 3 percent refused to answer. The Manila Times reported the findings on November 6.
In a hypothetical presidential matchup, the third-quarter Tugon ng Masa survey by OCTA Research — conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adults nationwide from September 28 to October 4, with a margin of error of ±3 points, and released on November 4 — showed Vice President Sara Duterte leading former vice president Leni Robredo by 40 percent to 33 percent. But Duterte's support has slipped from 46 percent in the first quarter and 43 percent in the second, making the seven-point gap the narrowest in three survey rounds this year.
Palace Press Officer Claire Castro said on November 4 that President Marcos is not focused on survey results and remains focused on governance and preparations for the upcoming ASEAN Summit, adding that there is no election yet and the real result will be seen on voting day itself. The next national elections are about 18 months away.
Both surveys were conducted while Sara Duterte's Senate impeachment trial is under way, with the defense set to begin presenting its case on November 9. OCTA said the impeachment proceedings may have influenced voter preference and that its working hypotheses require validation in future survey rounds.
(Source: The Manila Times)
来源：马尼拉时报
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：菲律宾副总统莎拉·杜特尔特2022年宣誓就职（资料图）。图片来源：菲律宾总统通讯办公室（公共领域，经Wikimedia Commons）。 / Photo: Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte at her oath-taking in 2022 (file photo). Image: Presidential Communications Office of the Philippines (public domain, via Wikimedia Commons).
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