阿根廷经济滑向衰退考验米莱：32,300家企业关闭，消费九个月跌2.7%
经济学家预计，阿根廷经济第三季度滑入衰退，成为总统米莱（Javier Milei）紧缩政策的考验，距2027年10月总统大选尚有一年。米莱上任近三年来，通胀已由约200%压低至30%，但效益尚未惠及多数民众。
智库Fundar统计，2023年12月米莱上台至今年7月，约32,300家企业关闭，约占企业总数6%。市场研究机构Scentia称，今年前九个月消费同比跌2.7%；国家统计局数据显示，8月制造业同比跌3.2%、零售批发跌3.5%、建筑跌2.5%。咨询公司Analytica负责人德尔加多（Ricardo Delgado）称，经济已在温和衰退中，第二季度环比跌0.6%，第三季度料再跌约1.5%。
Giacobbe民调显示，米莱10月支持率降至36%，不支持率升至56%。米莱已排除改变经济计划。第三季度官方数据将于11月公布，经济学家预计2027年小幅反弹。
（来源：阿根廷国家统计与普查局）
Argentina's Economy Reels Toward Recession, Testing Milei: 32,300 Businesses Closed, Consumption Down
Economists say Argentina's economy likely slipped into recession in the third quarter, testing President Javier Milei's austerity program a year ahead of the October 2027 presidential election. Since Milei took office nearly three years ago, inflation has fallen from about 200 percent to 30 percent, but the benefits have yet to reach much of the public.
Think tank Fundar counts some 32,300 business closures, roughly 6 percent of all companies, between December 2023 and July. Market researcher Scentia says consumption fell 2.7 percent in the first nine months of the year. National statistics agency INDEC data for August showed manufacturing down 3.2 percent year on year, retail and wholesale trade down 3.5 percent and construction down 2.5 percent. Ricardo Delgado of consultancy Analytica called it a moderate recession, with GDP down 0.6 percent in the second quarter and a further fall of about 1.5 percent forecast for the third.
A Giacobbe survey put Milei's approval at 36 percent in October, with disapproval at 56 percent. Milei has ruled out changes to his economic plan. Official third-quarter data is due in November, and economists forecast a slight rebound in 2027.
(Source: INDEC, Argentina)
来源：阿根廷国家统计与普查局
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图片来源：GSM国家站图库（Wikimedia Commons开放授权） / Image: GSM country library (Wikimedia Commons, open license)
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
