南非债务占GDP比率峰值下修至74.6%：GDP数据修订后名义规模上调5.1%
南非财政部11月5日发表声明，南非国家统计局（Stats SA）2026年对国内生产总值（GDP）数据进行的重定基与基准修订，已把名义GDP的测算水平提高了5.1%（3930亿兰特）。财政部据新数据更新了关键财政比率，相关修订已由南非国家统计局于10月29日公布。
按修订后的数据，南非债务占GDP比率已在2025/26财政年度见顶于74.6%，低于2026年中期预算政策声明（MTBPS）中估计的78.4%；该比率将在2032/33年度降至70%以下，比中期预算政策声明的预测提前一年。
其他关键财政比率也有所下调：2026/27年度基本盈余为GDP的1.6%（中期预算政策声明为1.7%），2029/30年度升至2.8%（原为2.9%）；2026/27年度主预算赤字现为GDP的3.5%，低于原估计的3.7%。综合预算赤字在本财年及中期平均改善0.2个百分点，主预算基本盈余中期平均下调0.1个百分点。
南非财政部表示，上述比率变化只是基于修订后GDP数据的机械调整，并不反映政府收入、支出或债务预测的任何改变；2027年预算将提供包括更新后经济预测与财政预测在内的更多细节。
南非财政部总干事 Duncan Pieterse 表示：「我们更新后的测算确认，政府仍在实现其财政目标，而且基于南非国家统计局修订后的GDP数据，财政指标比我们此前预测的还要好。我们正在恢复财政信誉，南非正享受到借贷成本降低、投资与增长基础更坚实的好处。」
财政部介绍，基准修订使用改进后的数据与方法，把经济结构的重大变化纳入GDP测算，使其更准确地反映经济的规模与构成；南非国家统计局约每五年进行一次此类基准修订，历史上往往会提高经济规模的绝对测算水平，但很少对经济增长率产生实质影响。名义GDP数值变大，会拉低以其为分母的各项财政比率。
（来源：南非财政部）
South Africa's Debt-to-GDP Peak Revised Down to 74.6% as GDP Revision Lifts Nominal GDP by 5.1%
South Africa's National Treasury said in a statement on November 5 that Statistics South Africa's (Stats SA) 2026 rebasing and benchmarking of gross domestic product (GDP) data has increased the measured level of nominal GDP by 5.1% (R393 billion). The Treasury has updated key fiscal ratios following the GDP revision announced by Stats SA on October 29.
Based on Stats SA's updated numbers, the debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 74.6% in the 2025/26 fiscal year, down from the 78.4% estimated in the 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), and the ratio falls below 70% by 2032/33, a year earlier than forecast in the MTBPS.
Other key fiscal ratios have also declined: the primary surplus is now 1.6% of GDP in 2026/27, compared with 1.7% in the MTBPS, rising to 2.8% in 2029/30, compared with 2.9%; and the main budget deficit for 2026/27 is now 3.5% of GDP, compared with 3.7%. On average, the consolidated budget deficit improves by 0.2 percentage points of GDP for the current fiscal year and over the medium term, while the main budget primary surplus is revised down by an average of 0.1 percentage points over the medium term.
The National Treasury said the revised ratios do not reflect changes to government's revenue, spending or debt projections, and that the 2027 Budget will provide further details, including updated economic forecasts and fiscal projections.
National Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse said: "Our updated calculations confirm that government continues to achieve its fiscal targets, with the fiscal metrics looking even better than we had projected based on Statistics South Africa's revised GDP data. We are restoring fiscal credibility and South Africa is seeing the benefits in lower borrowing costs and a stronger foundation for investment and growth."
The Treasury said the benchmarking exercise uses improved data and methods to incorporate major changes in the economy's structure into GDP calculations, ensuring they more accurately reflect its size and composition. It noted that Stats SA's five-yearly benchmarking exercises have often increased the estimated size of the economy but have seldom impacted economic growth rates meaningfully, and that the higher nominal GDP figure reduces fiscal ratios that use it as the denominator.
(Source: South African National Treasury)
来源：南非财政部
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：南非财政部总干事 Duncan Pieterse。SAnews 供图，南非政府新闻署授权媒体免费使用并注明出处。 / Photo: National Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse. Photo by SAnews, provided for free media use with credit to SAnews.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
