「美国谋杀率世界第三、去掉五城排第189」图片走红华人社群：逐项对照FBI与联合国数据
一张中英双语图片近日在华人社群流传：英文原卡称，美国谋杀率居世界第三；若去掉芝加哥、底特律、华盛顿特区、圣路易斯、费城五座城市，美国在全球193个国家中只排第189位；图上还称，这五座城市都有最严格的禁枪法律，并由民主党执政。卡片末尾写着一句「Fact-check it」（来核查吧）。本篇就按这句话，逐项对照联邦调查局（FBI）与联合国毒品和犯罪问题办公室（UNODC）的公开数据。
一、「谋杀率世界第三」：按率约排第50位，按总数约排第6位
先分清两个概念：凶杀「率」是每10万居民中的故意杀人人数，看的是比例；「总数」是案件的绝对数。原图英文写的是 murder rate（率）。
按联合国毒品和犯罪问题办公室的数据（世界银行数据库收录），美国2023年故意杀人率为每10万人5.76人，全年19,412人。在这套数据里，凶杀率高于美国的国家和地区有近50个（各国取最近可得年份）：居首的牙买加为每10万人49.4人，约为美国的8.6倍；其后是厄瓜多尔45.7人、南非43.7人、海地41.1人、洪都拉斯31.4人、墨西哥24.9人、巴西19.3人。剔除人口较少的小型经济体、只看主要国家，美国排第35位上下；全部算入，美国排第50位上下。两种数法，都不是第3位。
即便改按总数算，美国也不是第三。同套数据中，巴西2023年故意杀人约40,698人、印度2022年约40,130人、尼日利亚2023年约35,884人、墨西哥2023年约32,252人、南非2022年约27,272人，都在美国的19,412人之前，美国居第六位上下。
二、五城占全美谋杀案多少：约8%
按FBI《2024年全国犯罪报告》，2024年全美谋杀及非过失杀人案估计为16,935起，谋杀率每10万人5.0起。
五城警局公布的2024年数字：芝加哥573起、费城269起、底特律203起、华盛顿特区187起、圣路易斯151起，合计1,383起，约占全美的8.2%。各城市统计口径略有出入（例如圣路易斯的数字不含被认定为正当防卫的杀人），但量级清楚：五城加起来不到全美谋杀案的一成。
三、把原图的算术做完：去掉五城，率约从5.0降到4.7
按原图的算法真的减一遍：从16,935起里减去1,383起，余15,552起；五城居民合计约590万，从全美约3.4亿人口中同步扣除。测算下来，美国谋杀率由每10万人5.0起降到约4.7起。
对照联合国名单，4.7起的水平前面仍有近50个国家和地区，名次只比现在好上几位，仍在第50位上下。而第189位是什么概念：在193个国家里排第189，凶杀率要低到每10万人0.3人以下，日本是0.2人、新加坡约0.1人。美国要降到那个位置，谋杀案需要从约1.7万起降到一千起上下；只去掉占8%的五城，与那个位置还差约16倍。
四、五城凶杀率确实高：这一项有事实基础
图片选中的五座城市，凶杀率确实显著高于全国。按2024年数字测算：圣路易斯约每10万人54人，在全美大城市中居最前列；底特律约32人；华盛顿特区约27人；芝加哥约21人；费城约17人，分别是全国平均（5.0起）的约11倍、6倍、5倍、4倍和3倍。五城的凶杀案2024年也都在下降：费城降约35%、华盛顿特区降约32%、底特律降约19%、圣路易斯降到2013年以来最低、芝加哥降约8%。
五、「五城都有最严格的禁枪法」：逐城对不上
美国的枪支法律主要在州一级制定（华盛顿特区为特区法律）。以控枪研究机构吉福兹法律中心（Giffords Law Center）的《2025年度枪支法律记分卡》逐个看，该记分卡按法律强度给各州评A到F级：
芝加哥所在的伊利诺伊州得A，是全国最严的一档：该州实行购枪许可（FOID持枪卡）与购枪背景审查，2023年起禁止攻击性武器。华盛顿特区实行购枪许可、枪支登记，并禁止攻击性武器与大容量弹匣，管制同在最严之列。
另外三城不在这一档。底特律所在的密歇根州得B−，居全国中游。费城所在的宾夕法尼亚州得B，同居中游，而且宾州州法明确禁止各市自行制定枪支法规，费城无权自订更严的法律。圣路易斯所在的密苏里州得F，法律强度在50个州中排第46位，属最宽松的一档：该州自2017年起无需许可证即可携枪，州法同样禁止地方政府另行加严。五城分属的州法从最严到最松都有，「全部最严」与公开记录对不上。
至于「由民主党执政」一项：2024年，芝加哥市长Brandon Johnson、底特律市长Mike Duggan、华盛顿特区市长Muriel Bowser、圣路易斯市长Tishaura Jones、费城市长Cherelle Parker均为民主党籍，这一点与公开记录相符。市长党籍与凶杀率之间有无因果关系，公开数据本身不能回答，本稿不下结论。
查证结论分三类
对不上的有三项：「谋杀率世界第三」，按率约第50位、按总数约第6位；「去掉五城排第189」，五城只占约8%，去掉后率约4.7，名次仍在第50位上下；「五城全是最严禁枪法」，密苏里州为全美最宽松一档，密歇根、宾夕法尼亚两州居中。
有事实基础的有两项：五城凶杀率确实远高于全国，圣路易斯一城约为全国的11倍；2024年五市市长均为民主党籍。
本稿只对照公开数据：哪些数字成立、哪些不成立，写在上面；数字之外的成因与评价，不在这些数据能回答的范围之内。
关联：加州「烂尾账本」走红华人社群：高铁、911、无家可归者拨款，逐项对照官方记录
来源：GSM·美国
"US Murder Rate Third in the World, 189th Without Five Cities": Viral Image Checked Against FBI and UN Data
A bilingual image is circulating in Chinese communities. The original English card says the US has the 3rd highest murder rate in the world; that if you remove Chicago, Detroit, Washington DC, St. Louis and Philadelphia, the US is then 189th out of 193 countries in the world; and that all five cities have strict gun control laws and are controlled by Democrats. The card ends with the words "Fact-check it." This article takes up that invitation, checking each claim against public data from the FBI and the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
1. "Third-highest murder rate": about 50th by rate, about 6th by total count
Two different measures need to be separated first. The homicide "rate" is the number of intentional killings per 100,000 residents — a proportion. The "total" is the absolute number of cases. The card's English text says "murder rate."
According to UNODC data distributed through the World Bank database, the US intentional homicide rate in 2023 was 5.76 per 100,000 people, with 19,412 victims. Nearly 50 countries and territories record higher rates (each at its most recent available year): Jamaica is highest at 49.4 per 100,000, about 8.6 times the US figure, followed by Ecuador at 45.7, South Africa at 43.7, Haiti at 41.1, Honduras at 31.4, Mexico at 24.9 and Brazil at 19.3. Setting aside smaller economies and counting only larger countries, the US ranks around 35th; counting every territory in the dataset, it ranks around 50th. By neither count is it 3rd.
Even by totals, the US is not third. In the same dataset, Brazil recorded about 40,698 intentional homicides in 2023, India about 40,130 in 2022, Nigeria about 35,884 in 2023, Mexico about 32,252 in 2023 and South Africa about 27,272 in 2022 — all ahead of the US figure of 19,412, which puts the US around sixth.
2. The five cities account for about 8% of US murders
According to the FBI's Crime in the United States, 2024, an estimated 16,935 murders and nonnegligent manslaughters occurred nationwide in 2024, a rate of 5.0 per 100,000 people.
The five city police departments reported these 2024 figures: Chicago 573, Philadelphia 269, Detroit 203, Washington DC 187 and St. Louis 151 — a total of 1,383, about 8.2% of the national figure. Definitions differ slightly between departments (St. Louis, for example, excludes killings determined to be justifiable), but the order of magnitude is clear: the five cities together account for under one in ten US murders.
3. Running the card's own math: removing the five cities takes the rate from 5.0 to about 4.7
Subtract 1,383 from 16,935 and 15,552 murders remain; remove the five cities' roughly 5.9 million residents from the national population of about 340 million at the same time, and the US murder rate falls from 5.0 to about 4.7 per 100,000.
Against the UN list, a rate of 4.7 would still leave nearly 50 countries and territories ahead — a ranking around 50th, only a few places better than today. What would 189th place require? A rate below roughly 0.3 per 100,000: Japan records 0.2 and Singapore about 0.1. Reaching that level would mean cutting US murders from about 17,000 to around 1,000. Removing five cities that account for 8% leaves the figure about 16 times too high.
4. The five cities' homicide rates are genuinely high: this part has a factual basis
The five cities named on the card do record homicide rates far above the national level. Based on 2024 figures: St. Louis about 54 per 100,000, among the highest of any large US city; Detroit about 32; Washington DC about 27; Chicago about 21; Philadelphia about 17 — roughly 11, 6, 5, 4 and 3 times the national rate of 5.0. All five also fell sharply in 2024: Philadelphia by about 35%, Washington DC by about 32%, Detroit by about 19%, St. Louis to its lowest level since 2013, and Chicago by about 8%.
5. "All five cities have the strictest gun laws": checked one by one, this does not hold
Gun laws in the US are set mainly at the state level (and by the District itself in Washington DC's case). Using the Giffords Law Center's 2025 Annual Gun Law Scorecard, which grades states from A to F on the strength of their laws:
Illinois, home to Chicago, earns an A — the strictest tier — with a firearms owner identification (FOID) system, background checks on purchases and a ban on assault weapons since 2023. Washington DC requires purchase permits and gun registration and bans assault weapons and large-capacity magazines, placing it in the strictest tier as well.
The other three are not in that tier. Michigan (Detroit) earns a B−, mid-pack nationally. Pennsylvania (Philadelphia) earns a B, also mid-pack, and Pennsylvania state law bars cities from passing their own gun laws, so Philadelphia could not adopt stricter rules at city level even if it wished. Missouri (St. Louis) earns an F, ranking 46th of the 50 states for legal strength — among the loosest in the country: since 2017 no permit has been required to carry a firearm there, and state law likewise bars local governments from adding stricter rules. The five cities' states span the full range from strictest to loosest, so "all five strictest" does not match the public record.
On "controlled by Democrats": in 2024 the mayors of Chicago (Brandon Johnson), Detroit (Mike Duggan), Washington DC (Muriel Bowser), St. Louis (Tishaura Jones) and Philadelphia (Cherelle Parker) were all Democrats, which matches the public record. Whether a mayor's party has any causal bearing on a city's homicide rate is not a question public data alone can answer, and this article draws no such conclusion.
Sorting the findings into three groups
Three claims do not check out: "third-highest murder rate" — about 50th by rate and about 6th by total count; "189th without five cities" — the five cities account for about 8% of murders, and removing them leaves a rate of about 4.7 and a ranking still around 50th; and "all five have the strictest gun laws" — Missouri is among the loosest states in the country, with Michigan and Pennsylvania mid-pack.
Two elements have a factual basis: the five cities' homicide rates are indeed far above the national level, with St. Louis at about 11 times the US rate; and all five mayors in 2024 were Democrats.
This article checks the public numbers only — which figures hold and which do not. Causes and judgments beyond the data are outside what these numbers can answer.
Source: GSM · USA
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：在华人社群流传的图片，上为中文转述、下为英文原卡，卡上称美国谋杀率居世界第三、去掉五座城市后在193个国家中排第189位。 / The image circulating in Chinese communities: a Chinese paraphrase above and the original English card below, claiming the US murder rate ranks third in the world and 189th out of 193 countries without five cities.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
