中期选举之夜谁来判定胜负：美联社与DDHQ两套计票体系，首批判定11月3日晚6时出炉
美国，11 月 1 日——11 月 3日周二晚间，全美各新闻机构将在全部选票清点完毕之前，判定近年来竞争最激烈的美国中期选举之一的获胜者。路透社 11 月 1日梳理了各机构判定胜负的机制：多数电视网与数字媒体依赖两家计票数据提供方——美联社（Associated Press）或选举数据公司Decision Desk HQ（DDHQ）。
首批判定将在投票站陆续关闭后不久开始：印第安纳州与肯塔基州为美东时间晚 6 时（格林尼治标准时间 23时），随后佐治亚州、南卡罗来纳州、佛蒙特州与弗吉尼亚州为美东时间晚 7 时（11 月 4 日格林尼治标准时间 0时）。在已投票比例较高的选区，某些选战可能出现即时判定。
美联社是一家由会员报纸支持的非营利新闻机构，自 1848 年以来参与美国每一次选举的计票工作，依靠全国记者网络与选举官员核实结果。2026年中期选举，美联社表示将派出 4,000多名记者，驻扎在各县选举办公室与地方投票点，向美国广播公司（ABC）、哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）、福克斯新闻（Fox）、美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）与全国广播公司（NBC）的决策台提供数据。ABC、CBS、CNN与 NBC 还依赖研究公司 SSRS，该公司于 2025 年收购了出口民调公司 EdisonResearch。美联社在判定时使用已报告票数，并根据过往投票模式与提前投票数据估算尚未清点的票数；只有当落后候选人已无法追赶时，才会判定胜负。
DDHQ 则从官方州级来源收集票数，通常是各州州务卿或州选举部门。其客户包括 NewsNation、《国会山报》（The Hill）与Newsmax，最近还签约了由埃隆·马斯克拥有的社交网络X。该公司使用自动化软件反复核查官方选举网站并收集新公布的票数，同时派记者实地收集；约 80%的选票通过直接从官方选举网站拉取或人工监测官方选举网站处理，其余由记者收集。该公司用选举官员报告的票数除以其估算的该选区总投票率，得出已清点选票比例；用总投票率估算值减去已报告票数，得出剩余票数，并在选举之夜用实际数据不断修正估算值。最终判定须经团队一致同意，并由数据科学负责人斯科特·特兰特签字。特兰特告诉路透社：“我们正准备在选举之夜安排数千人收集数据。”
各机构做法不一：《华尔街日报》与 MS NOW 将完全依赖美联社的判定；福克斯新闻与 CBS新闻将基于美联社票数、出口民调、提前投票总数与各自的统计模型作出自己的预测；福克斯的决策台将判定所有全州选战以及众议院与参议院控制权的归属。《纽约时报》多数选战依赖美联社判定，但会用选区级数据与“Needle”模型独立复核竞争激烈的选战，判定时间可能早于或晚于美联社。彭博社不作自己的判定，选举结果使用既定的第三方来源；路透社也将引用其他新闻机构的判定。《华盛顿邮报》未回应路透社关于其判定方式的询问。
公众信任问题使判定工作更为复杂。梅迪尔地方新闻倡议（Medill Local NewsInitiative）与媒体信任联盟（Alliance for Trust in Media）10 月的一项民调发现，超过 60%的美国人对新闻机构准确报道选举结果抱有一定信心，但只有 32% 抱有高度信心，且民主党人比共和党人更为信任。
判定也可能出错，但撤回判定较为罕见。DDHQ 在 2025 年撤回了西雅图市长选战的判定；今年早些时候，在选举日计票结果转向后，DDHQ撤回了新泽西州第 11 国会选区特别选举民主党初选的判定。2018 年，在预计获胜者于加利福尼亚州第 21国会选区计票中落后后，美联社在其判定账号上发文撤回判定，原因是民主党人 T.J. 考克斯已在计票中取得领先。
How U.S. News Organizations Will Call the Midterms: AP and DDHQ Systems, With First Calls at 6 p.m. ET on November 3
UNITED STATES, November 1 — On Tuesday night, newsrooms across theU.S. will call winners in one of the country's most closely contestedmidterm election cycles in recent years, long before all the votes arecounted. Reuters on November 1 laid out how the calls are made: mosttelevision networks and digital outlets rely on two providers for votecounts — the Associated Press or election-data firm Decision Desk HQ(DDHQ).
The first calls will start soon after polls begin to close in theUnited States, first with Indiana and Kentucky at 6 p.m. ET (2300GMT), and shortly after in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont andVirginia at 7 p.m. (0000 GMT on November 4). In certain races theremay be an instant call if much of the voting has already taken place.
The AP, a nonprofit newsroom supported by member newspapers, hascounted votes in every U.S. election since 1848, working with anational network of reporters and election officials to verifyresults. For the 2026 midterms, the AP said it would deploy more than4,000 reporters at county election offices and local pollinglocations, gathering and providing data to the decision desks at ABCNews, CBS News, Fox, CNN and NBC News. ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC also relyon research firm SSRS, which acquired exit-polling company EdisonResearch in 2025. When making calls, the AP uses vote totals andestimates how many votes remain uncounted based on past votingpatterns and early-vote data. It calls a race only when the trailingcandidate cannot catch up.
DDHQ collects vote counts from official state sources, usuallysecretaries of state or state election departments. Its clientsinclude NewsNation, the Hill and Newsmax, and it recently signed up X,the social network owned by Elon Musk. It uses automated software torepeatedly check official election websites and collect newly postedvote totals in addition to using reporters on the ground. DDHQ saysroughly 80% of all votes are processed by pulling data directly fromofficial election sites, or by manually monitoring election sites. Theremaining counts are collected by reporters. It calculates thepercentage of ballots counted by dividing the votes reported byelection officials by its estimated total turnout for a race. Itdetermines remaining votes by subtracting reported votes from thisoverall turnout estimate, which is refined on election night usingactual data. Final projections require unanimous team agreement and asign-off from the head of data science, Scott Tranter. "We'repreparing to have several thousand people working on election night togather data," Tranter told Reuters.
Outlets differ in approach. The Wall Street Journal and MS NOW willrely solely on the AP for race calls, while Fox News and CBS News willmake their own projections based on the AP vote count, exit polls,early-vote totals and their own statistical modeling. Fox's decisiondesk will be making its own calls in all statewide races as well asthe calls for control of the House and control of the Senate. The NewYork Times relies on AP calls for most contests but independentlyreviews competitive races using precinct-level data and its Needlemodel. It may make a call before or after the AP. Bloomberg does notmake its own race calls. For election results, it uses establishedthird-party sources. Reuters will also be citing the race calls fromother news organizations. The Washington Post did not respond torequests for comment on how it will call races.
Low public trust complicates race calls for news outlets. While morethan 60% of Americans have some confidence in news organizations toreport accurate election results, only 32% have high confidence, withDemocrats more trusting than Republicans, an October poll for theMedill Local News Initiative and the Alliance for Trust in Mediafound.
Race projections can be wrong, though retractions are rare. In 2025,DDHQ withdrew a projection in the Seattle mayor's race. Earlier thisyear, DDHQ withdrew its call in the Democratic primary for a specialelection in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District after ElectionDay vote counts shifted the race away from its initial projection. In2018, after a projected winner fell behind in California's 21stCongressional District, AP posted on its race-call account that it wasretracting the call because Democrat T.J. Cox had taken the lead inthe vote count.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：华盛顿特区一处投票站内，选务官员与选举观察员交谈（2024年资料图）。CC BY-SA 2.0，欧安组织图片，经Wikimedia Commons。 / An election official speaks with observers at a Washington, DC polling station (2024 file photo). CC BY-SA 2.0, OSCE photo, via Wikimedia Commons.
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