世界银行：预计2027年粮食价格再涨约7% 谷物价格涨幅约9%
世界银行10月28日发布的最新《大宗商品市场展望》预计，全球食品大宗商品价格在2026年上涨约10%后，2027年将再上涨约7%，原因是能源成本上升、天气扰动与贸易挑战持续给粮食供应带来压力。
分项看，谷物价格预计2026年上涨14.1%、2027年再涨9.3%，其中美国硬红冬小麦涨幅最显著，平均价格预计从2025年的每吨243美元升至2026年的311美元、2027年再升至353美元。报告预计全球能源价格2026年上涨32%，布伦特原油今年平均每桶91美元（2025年为69美元），明年回落至79美元。
世界银行副首席经济学家兼前景局局长 Ayhan Kose 说，能源成本上升与贸易扰动正给大宗商品市场带来压力，威胁加剧通胀、粮食不安全并拖累经济增长。报告把黑海粮食运输再遭袭击、能源成本上升以及更强厄尔尼诺事件的可能列为主要上行风险，称若全球冲突加剧，粮价可能超出当前预测。
World Bank: Food Prices Forecast to Rise About 7 Percent in 2027, Grains About 9 Percent
Global food commodity prices are projected to rise by about 10 percent in 2026 and a further 7 percent in 2027, according to the World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook, published on October 28, as higher energy costs, weather disruptions and trade challenges put pressure on food supplies.
Grain prices are forecast to rise 14.1 percent in 2026 and a further 9.3 percent in 2027, with the sharpest gains expected for US hard red winter wheat, whose average price is projected to reach $311 per ton in 2026, compared with $243 per ton in 2025, before climbing to $353 per ton in 2027. Global energy prices are expected to increase by 32 percent in 2026, with Brent crude averaging $91 per barrel this year, compared with $69 in 2025, before declining to $79 next year.
Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist and Director of the Prospects Group, said rising energy costs and trade disruptions are putting pressure on commodity markets and threatening to worsen inflation, food insecurity and economic growth. The Bank identifies further attacks on Black Sea grain shipments, rising energy costs and the possibility of a stronger El Niño event among the main risks to its outlook, and says food prices could exceed current projections if global conflicts intensify.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：照片：小麦收割（资料图），Michael Gäbler 摄，Wikimedia Commons，CC BY-SA 3.0 授权 / Photo: wheat harvest, by Michael Gäbler, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0
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