基拉韦厄火山第56次喷发预报窗口定在11月3日至10日：山顶持续膨胀、警戒级别维持黄色
位于美国夏威夷州 Hawaii 岛的基拉韦厄火山（Kilauea）山顶喷发仍在暂停中。美国地质调查局（USGS）夏威夷火山观测站10月31日上午发布每日更新：根据山顶缓慢而持续的膨胀趋势，第56次熔岩喷泉的预报窗口现定在11月3日至10日。
这次 Halemaumau 火山口喷发自2024年12月23日以来断续进行，每次喷泉一般持续不到12小时，其间以两周以上的暂停相隔。第55次喷发发生在10月17日凌晨3时19分至上午9时03分（夏威夷时间），北侧喷口的熔岩喷泉最高约720英尺（约220米），烟柱高达约25,000英尺。此后喷发暂停至今已两周。
观测站称，山顶倾斜仪自第55次喷发结束以来已累计恢复16.2微弧度的倾斜，其中过去24小时增加约0.8微弧度，显示岩浆房仍在缓慢充填增压。夜间，西南侧合并喷口与北侧喷口都可见间歇性强光与偶发飞溅；过去24小时山顶一带记录到7次1.5级以下的小地震。暂停期间二氧化硫排放量通常在每天1,000至5,000吨之间，今晨信风正把火山气体吹向西南方的 Kau 一带。
基拉韦厄的火山警戒级别维持 ADVISORY（咨询级）、航空色码维持黄色（YELLOW），均未调整。观测站同时提醒，第55次喷发前的酝酿过程与以往明显不同——其前曾出现长达39天的间歇性熔岩溢流，是本轮喷发中最长的前兆期——因此第56次能否精确预报仍有不确定性。观测站正与 Hawaii Volcanoes National Park 及夏威夷县民防局保持联系，持续监测。
Kilauea's Episode 56 Lava Fountaining Forecast for November 3-10 as the Summit Keeps Inflating
The summit eruption of Kilauea, on Hawaii's Big Island, remains paused, and the U.S. Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said in its daily update on the morning of October 31 that, based on slow and steady summit inflation, the forecast window for episode 56 lava fountaining is now November 3-10, 2026.
The Halemaumau eruption has been episodic since December 23, 2024, with fountaining episodes generally lasting less than 12 hours, separated by pauses of two or more weeks. Episode 55 ran from 3:19 a.m. to 9:03 a.m. Hawaii time on October 17, sending lava fountains about 720 feet (220 metres) high from the north vent and a plume to roughly 25,000 feet. The eruption has been paused for two weeks since.
Summit tiltmeters have recovered a total of 16.2 microradians of tilt since episode 55 ended, including about 0.8 microradians in the past 24 hours, indicating the magma chamber continues to repressurise slowly. Overnight, intermittent strong glow and occasional spatter were seen at a merged southwest vent and at the north vent, and seven earthquakes below magnitude 1.5 were recorded at the summit in the past 24 hours. Sulphur dioxide emissions during the pause typically range from 1,000 to 5,000 tonnes per day, and light trade winds were carrying volcanic gases southwest toward Kau on Saturday morning.
Kilauea's volcano alert level remains at ADVISORY and its aviation colour code at YELLOW. The observatory cautioned that the build-up to episode 55 differed substantially from earlier episodes — it was preceded by 39 days of intermittent lava overflows, the longest precursory period of this eruption — so uncertainty remains over whether the next episode can be forecast precisely. The observatory remains in contact with Hawaii Volcanoes National Park and the Hawaii County Civil Defense Agency.
Related: Kilauea Begins Its 55th Eruptive Episode
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：基拉韦厄火山本轮喷发序列第14次喷发（2025年3月20日）的熔岩喷泉，高约200米，与当前暂停中的 Halemaumau 喷发同属一轮（资料图）。USGS／M. Patrick 摄，公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / A roughly 200-metre lava fountain during episode 14 (March 20, 2025) of Kilauea's ongoing eruption sequence, the same Halemaumau eruption that is currently paused (file photo). Photo by USGS / M. Patrick, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
- 2026-10-18 01:13基拉韦厄火山开始第55次喷发 熔岩喷泉高达250英尺
- 2026-10-31 18:40基拉韦厄火山第56次喷发预报窗口定在11月3日至10日：山顶持续膨胀、警戒级别维持黄色本篇
