国债已逾40万亿美元、赤字约占GDP的6%：财政恶化成投资者中期选举前最大担忧，12月11日是资金协议期限
据路透社10月30日报道，美国不断恶化的财政状况一直是困扰投资者的问题，无论11月3日中期选举结果如何，投资者都认为这一问题没有简单的解法。
对财政前景的担忧今年已削弱市场对美国国债的信心：美国国债总额已超过40万亿美元，持续的赤字令市场预期未来发债规模将进一步扩大。赤字预计将维持在国内生产总值（GDP）约6%的水平，今年的预算缺口约为2万亿美元。
投资者表示，若共和党保住国会控制权，公共财政将面临同样的压力；若民主党赢得控制权，政治僵局可能使新支出更难达成一致，但实质性的财政整顿仍不大可能出现。
在执政两党同时控制国会与总统职位两年之后，预测市场 Kalshi 与 Polymarket 认为，民主党在参议院与众议院同时取得多数是周二选举最可能的结果。路透社近期一项民调显示民主党领先11个百分点。野村等银行则认为可能出现分裂国会，参议院选情难分高下。
分析人士指出，民主党大胜可能约束进一步减税并限制可自由裁量支出的增长，但社会保障与医疗保险等权益性支出以及利息支付将继续推高借款需求，赤字难有实质缩减的空间。
Allspring Global Investments 固定收益首席投资策略师 George Bory 表示，政府支出已相当固化，未来几年赤字很可能维持在高位，国会控制权的变化未必能显著减少借款需求。Wealthspire 首席市场策略师 Chris Maxey 表示，问题归根结底在于当前的赤字水平、未偿债务规模以及与之相关的不断上升的利息成本。
债券管理公司 Pimco 在近期研究简报中表示，两种选举结果下支出都可能增加、赤字都会扩大。Pimco 公共政策主管 Libby Cantrill 写道，若参议院翻盘，民主党在即将到来的债务上限与支出谈判中将拥有更大话语权，支出甚至可能进一步增加。
渣打银行 G10 外汇研究与北美宏观策略主管 Steve Englander 表示，投资者已不再把共和党视为财政克制的政党，若共和党保住两院控制权，债券价格将作出负面反应。Truist Wealth 固定收益董事总经理 Chip Hughey 表示，无论哪一方获胜，优势幅度都可能相对有限，未来两年市场对政府发债与赤字的关注只会加强。
另一重风险来自债务上限之争。国会已把2027财年支出的激烈辩论推迟到中期选举之后，定下12月11日为达成资金协议的期限；而债务上限需要上调的时间点预计要到2027年晚些时候才出现。
来源：路透社。
National Debt Above $40 Trillion and Deficit Near 6% of GDP: Fiscal Deterioration Is Investors' Top Worry Ahead of the Midterms, With a December 11 Funding Deadline
Reuters reported on October 30 that the United States' deteriorating fiscal picture has been a nagging worry for investors, who see no easy solutions however the November 3 midterm elections play out.
Concerns over the fiscal outlook have weakened confidence in U.S. Treasuries this year, as the national debt tops $40 trillion and persistent deficits fuel expectations of heavier debt issuance in the years ahead. The deficit is expected to remain around 6% of gross domestic product, with a $2 trillion budget gap this year.
Investors said that if Republicans retain control, they expect more of the same pressures on the public purse, and that if Democrats win control of Congress, political gridlock may make it harder to agree on new spending, yet meaningful fiscal consolidation is unlikely.
After two years of Republicans controlling Congress and the presidency, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket see Democratic majorities in both the Senate and the House as the most likely outcome on Tuesday. A recent Reuters poll showed an 11-point Democratic advantage. Some banks such as Nomura see a split Congress emerging, with Senate races too close to call.
Analysts said a Democratic sweep could constrain additional tax cuts and limit increases in discretionary spending, but rising entitlement costs such as Social Security and Medicare, as well as interest payments, would continue to drive borrowing.
George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, said government spending is "pretty well entrenched," and with deficits likely to stay large, a change in congressional control may not significantly reduce borrowing needs. Chris Maxey, chief market strategist at Wealthspire, said it comes back to the current deficit, the amount of debt outstanding and the rising interest costs.
Bond manager Pimco said in a recent research note that spending would likely increase under both election scenarios while the deficit would expand. Libby Cantrill, Pimco's head of public policy, wrote that spending could increase even more if the Senate flips.
Steve Englander, head of G10 FX research and North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered, said investors no longer view Republicans as the party of fiscal restraint. Chip Hughey, managing director of fixed income at Truist Wealth, said whoever wins, the margin is likely to be relatively slim and the focus on government debt issuance and deficits will intensify over the next two years.
Congress has postponed a contentious debate over fiscal 2027 spending until after the midterms, setting a December 11 deadline to reach a funding agreement, while the date when the debt ceiling needs to be raised is unlikely to occur until late 2027.
Source: Reuters.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：位于 Washington 的美国财政部大楼。GSM联邦机构固定图库照片。 / Photo: U.S. Department of the Treasury headquarters in Washington. GSM federal agency library photo.
