1,300亿美元单月商品贸易逆差高于两年前：德国经济研究所IW报告称关税未缩小美国逆差，欧盟份额降至7%、中国降至14%
据路透社10月30日报道，德国经济研究所（IW）一份被路透社看到的研究报告指出，美国总统特朗普的经济议程带来了稳健的经济增长与强劲的投资，却没有缩小美国的贸易逆差。
报告要点显示，特朗普的减税、关税与推动制造业回流的政策成效参半：美国国内生产总值（GDP）增长保持稳健、与超级智能相关的投资活跃，但就业创造落后于上一届政府，通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标。
贸易方面，尽管美国已实施大范围进口关税，美国8月商品贸易逆差仍达到1,300亿美元，高于两年前的水平。
不过贸易格局已经发生变化：以2024年8月为对照，欧盟在美国商品贸易逆差中所占的份额由20%降至7%，中国的份额由29%降至14%。
制造业回流方面同样未见成效：外国直接投资（FDI）流入在2025年下降8.2%，至2,480亿美元，比2015年至2024年的平均水平低18%。
报告还指出，美国与以色列对伊朗的战争正在推高本已高企的公共债务并推升利率，债权人开始质疑美国能否持续背负其40万亿美元的未偿债务。
$130 Billion Monthly Goods Trade Deficit Tops Level of Two Years Ago: IW Report Says Tariffs Failed to Shrink the U.S. Deficit, EU Share Down to 7% and China's to 14%
President Donald Trump's economic agenda has delivered robust growth and strong investment but failed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, according to a study by the German Economic Institute IW seen by Reuters on Friday, October 30.
The report found mixed results from Trump's tax cuts, tariffs and drive to revive domestic manufacturing: gross domestic product growth remained solid and investment related to super intelligence was buoyant, but job creation lagged the prior administration and inflation remained above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target.
On trade, the U.S. goods trade deficit reached $130 billion in August, exceeding its level two years earlier, despite sweeping import tariffs.
Trade patterns had shifted, however. The European Union's share of the deficit fell to 7 percent from 20 percent in August 2024, while China's share declined to 14 percent from 29 percent.
Efforts to bring manufacturing back have so far fallen short. Foreign direct investment inflows fell 8.2 percent to $248 billion in 2025, 18 percent below the 2015-2024 average.
The report also said the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran is increasing already high public debt and pushing up interest rates, with creditors questioning whether the United States can sustain its outstanding debt of $40 trillion.
Source: Reuters, October 30 (IW report)
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：美国 Texas 州 Houston 附近的 Bayport 集装箱码头航拍（资料图）。照片：formulanone，CC BY-SA 2.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / An aerial view of the Bayport Container Terminal near Houston, Texas (file photo). Photo: formulanone, CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
