日本9月工业生产环比增长2.2%超预期：失业率意外降至2.4%，制造业预计10月产量再增5.1%
日本政府10月30日公布的初步数据显示，日本9月工业生产经季节调整后环比增长2.2%，高于路透社调查约1.3%的预期中值，扭转了8月下降2.4%的局面，是今年1月以来最快的单月增速；与去年同期相比增长1.9%。汽车、生产机械与业务用机械是主要拉动项，金属、陶瓷与化学品类则走弱。经济产业省维持对工业生产的评估不变，称生产仍呈波动不定的态势。
制造业企业的生产预估更为乐观：受访企业预计10月产量环比增长5.1%，明显高于一个月前预估的3.1%，11月预计再增0.8%。若预估兑现，工厂活动将在年末前明显提速，不过制造业的预估在实际数据公布时常被修正。
就业方面，总务省同日公布，日本9月失业率从8月的2.5%意外降至2.4%，失业人数减少10万、至167万，就业人数增加34万、至6,868万，为四个月来最高；求人倍率从1.18升至1.19。
消费一侧相对疲软：9月零售销售同比增长2.3%，低于3.3%的预期，也低于8月修订后的2.9%，环比下降0.7%、连续第二个月下滑。东京10月消费者价格同比上涨2.8%，除生鲜食品的核心价格上涨2.6%，为五个月来首次放缓，但仍高于日本银行2%的目标。这批数据在日本银行同日作出货币政策决定前数小时公布，生产与就业偏强、消费偏弱的组合给决策者提供了方向相反的信号。
关联：跟进：日本银行维持利率1.25%不变：基础通胀2013年以来首次大致达到2%目标，决议8比1通过
Japan's Industrial Output Rises 2.2% in September, Beating Forecasts: Jobless Rate Eases to 2.4% as Factories See 5.1% October Jump
Japan's industrial production rose a seasonally adjusted 2.2% in September from the previous month, preliminary government data released on October 30 showed, beating a median Reuters forecast of about 1.3% and reversing August's 2.4% decline for the fastest monthly gain since January. Output was up 1.9% from a year earlier. Motor vehicles, production machinery, and business-oriented machinery led the gains, partly offset by weakness in metals, ceramics, and chemicals. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry kept its assessment unchanged, saying production continues to fluctuate indecisively.
Manufacturers' own forecasts turned notably upbeat: companies surveyed expect output to jump 5.1% in October, a sharp upgrade from the 3.1% increase forecast a month earlier, followed by a further 0.8% rise in November, though such forecasts are often revised once actual data arrive.
On jobs, the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 2.4% in September from 2.5% in August. The number of unemployed fell by 100,000 to 1.67 million, while employment rose by 340,000 to a four-month high of 68.68 million. The jobs-to-applicants ratio ticked up to 1.19 from 1.18.
Consumer spending was softer: retail sales rose 2.3% from a year earlier, short of the 3.3% expected and below August's revised 2.9% pace, and fell 0.7% from the previous month for a second straight monthly decline. In Tokyo, consumer prices rose 2.8% in October from a year earlier, with core prices excluding fresh food up 2.6%, the first deceleration in five months, still above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. The data landed just hours before the Bank of Japan's policy decision the same day, giving policymakers signals pointing in opposite directions: firm production and jobs on one side, soft household spending on the other.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：东京涩谷与新宿一带黄昏全景（资料图）。照片：Ximonic (Simo Räsänen)，CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Dusk panorama over Tokyo's Shibuya and Shinjuku districts (file photo). Photo: Ximonic (Simo Räsänen), CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
