《柳叶刀》倒计时2026报告：2023年高温相关死亡达创纪录的71万，逾七成归因于气候变化
10月28日发布的《柳叶刀倒计时健康与气候变化2026报告》指出，2023年全球与高温相关的死亡估计达71万例，创历史纪录，其中71.5%可归因于人为气候变化；这一数字超过当年疟疾或艾滋病的致死人数。报告作者呼吁，正式把气候变化认定为全球卫生紧急事件，并把健康置于每一项气候决策的中心。
这是该报告的第十个年刊，由伦敦大学学院牵头、与世界卫生组织战略合作，汇集30多个国家100多家机构的146名研究人员，追踪54项指标。数据显示，2016至2023年间，高温年均关联死亡54.08万例，其中68%（36.99万例）由气候变化造成，高于2006至2015年间的55%（21.91万例）；2016至2023年间，气候变化估计共造成近300万例高温相关死亡。
高温还在削减劳动能力：2025年，全球因高温损失的潜在收入估计达1.07万亿美元，占全球经济产出的0.91%，连续第三年超过1万亿美元，其中农业与建筑业受冲击最大，分别占38%与29%。同在2025年，全球51.8%的陆地至少经历了一个月的极端干旱，为有记录以来第二差的年份。
报告执行主任 Marina Romanello 说，《巴黎协定》生效十年后，证据无可辩驳：气候变化的健康危害增长快于世界的应对，在许多方面甚至还在加速。世界卫生组织总干事谭德塞表示，气候变化是人类健康面临的最大威胁之一，但解决方案触手可及。报告亦指出积极面：2025年全球清洁能源投资达创纪录的2.1万亿美元。此报告在11月于土耳其举行的第31届联合国气候变化大会（COP31）之前发布。
Lancet Countdown 2026: Heat Linked to a Record 710,000 Deaths in 2023, More Than 70% Attributed to Climate Change
The 2026 Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, released on October 28, found that heat was linked to an estimated record 710,000 deaths in 2023 alone, with 71.5 per cent of them attributable to human-caused climate change — more than were caused by malaria or HIV. The report's authors call for climate change to be formally recognised as a global health emergency, with health placed at the centre of every climate decision.
The tenth annual report, led by University College London and produced in strategic collaboration with the World Health Organization, draws on 146 researchers from more than 100 institutions across more than 30 countries and tracks 54 indicators. Heat was linked to an average of 540,800 estimated deaths a year between 2016 and 2023, of which 68 per cent (369,900) were caused by climate change, up from 55 per cent (219,100) a year in 2006–2015. In total, climate change is estimated to have caused almost three million heat deaths between 2016 and 2023.
Heat also cut people's capacity to work: heat exposure cost the global economy an estimated US$1.07 trillion in potential income in 2025 — 0.91 per cent of global economic output and the third consecutive year above US$1 trillion — with agriculture and construction absorbing the biggest shares, 38 and 29 per cent respectively. In 2025, 51.8 per cent of the world's land experienced extreme drought for at least one month, the second-worst level on record.
"A decade after the Paris Agreement, our findings are unambiguous: the health harms of climate change are growing faster than the world's response to them, and in many cases even accelerating," said Professor Marina Romanello, the Lancet Countdown's Executive Director. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said climate change is one of the greatest threats to health facing humanity, while stressing that solutions are within reach. The report, published ahead of the COP31 climate conference in Türkiye in November, also noted a positive trend: global clean-energy investment reached a record US$2.1 trillion in 2025.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：长期干旱后龟裂的土地（资料图）。照片：CC BY-SA 4.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: Cracked earth after prolonged drought (file photo). CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
