匈牙利央行维持基准利率5.5%不变：下调经济增长预期，称全球风险仍高
匈牙利国家银行（MNB）10月20日在月度货币政策会议后宣布，将基准利率维持在5.5%不变，符合市场预期。匈牙利今年已四次降息，最近一次为8月将利率自5.75%下调25个基点至5.5%，9月会议亦维持不变。
通胀方面，匈牙利8月年通胀率为1.3%，较7月的1.2%微升，低于央行6月的预测。央行在9月会议上已将中期通胀目标下调至2.5%（上下浮动1个百分点），自2028年起进入货币政策视野。最新预测将2026年平均预期通胀维持不变，2027年上调至3.1%，2028年下调至2.6%。
增长方面，央行将经济增长预测下调至2026年1.8%、2027年2.9%、2028年2.8%，原因是极端干旱削减了农业产出。决策者同时指出，全球风险仍然偏高，地缘政治紧张继续对能源价格构成压力。同日，总理 Peter Magyar 在 Budapest 表示，政府计划把预算赤字占经济产出的比重降至2030年的2.8%，低于欧盟3%的上限，路径为2027年4.9%、2028年4%、2029年3.4%。（GSM 据路透社报道）
Hungary's Central Bank Holds Benchmark Rate at 5.5 Percent: Growth Forecasts Cut as Global Risks Stay Elevated
The National Bank of Hungary (MNB) on October 20 left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.5 percent at its October monetary policy meeting, as expected. The central bank has cut rates four times this year, most recently by 25 basis points in August, from 5.75 percent to 5.5 percent, and also held steady at its September meeting.
Annual inflation edged up to 1.3 percent in August from 1.2 percent in July, below the central bank's June forecasts. At its September meeting, policymakers lowered the medium-term inflation target to 2.5 percent, plus or minus one percentage point, to enter the monetary policy horizon from 2028. Average expected inflation was left unchanged for 2026, raised to 3.1 percent for 2027 and cut to 2.6 percent for 2028.
The economic growth forecasts were lowered to 1.8 percent for 2026, 2.9 percent for 2027 and 2.8 percent for 2028, as extreme drought reduced agricultural output. Policymakers noted that global risks remain elevated, with geopolitical tensions continuing to pressure energy prices. The same day in Budapest, Prime Minister Peter Magyar said the government expects the budget deficit to fall to 2.8 percent of economic output by 2030, below the European Union's 3 percent ceiling, with deficits of 4.9 percent, 4 percent and 3.4 percent planned for the intervening years. (GSM, from Reuters reporting)
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：位于 Budapest 的匈牙利国家银行大楼，Globetrotter19 摄，CC BY-SA 3.0（Wikimedia Commons）
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