美国选举制度（二）：总统怎样选出来：选举人团与270票胜线

【本章要点】

美国选总统不是全国普选直选，而是「选举人团」间接选举：538名选举人，拿到270票即胜

48个州实行「赢者通吃」，缅因与内布拉斯加两州按选区分配

普选票多、选举人票少而落败，历史上发生过四次

一、你投的其实是「选举人」

美国总统由选举人团（Electoral College）选出，这套办法写在宪法第二条与第十二修正案里。每年11月大选日，选民在选票上勾选总统候选人的名字，但这一票在法律上的含义是：把本州的选举人票投给该候选人所属政党推出的选举人名单。

选举人总数538人：各州选举人数等于该州国会议员总数——众议员人数（按人口分配）加2名参议员；首都华盛顿特区虽无国会议员，依第二十三修正案也享有3名选举人。538票中过半数，即270票，是入主白宫的胜线。

二、赢者通吃与两个例外

48个州采用「赢者通吃」（winner-take-all）：在本州普选中得票最高的候选人，拿走该州全部选举人票。赢一千票与赢一百万票，结果完全一样——这是理解美国大选的关键。

只有两个州例外：缅因州与内布拉斯加州按「国会选区法」分配——全州得票最高者拿2票（对应参议员名额），每个众议员选区得票最高者各拿该区的1票。因此这两个州的选举人票可能分属不同候选人，2024年大选中两州都出现过拆分。

三、从11月投票到1月就职

大选日之后，各州在12月上旬完成计票认证，选举人于12月中旬在各自州首府集会，正式投下选举人票，证书送往华盛顿。次年1月6日，国会联席会议在副总统主持下公开点票。若无人达到270票，改由众议院「权变选举」：每州代表团合投一票，得26州支持者当选总统；副总统则由参议院选出。1824年与1876年前后各有一次选举最终由众议院或特别安排定夺。1月20日，新总统宣誓就职。

若有选举人没有按本州普选结果投票，称为「失信选举人」。2016年曾有7张失信票被正式计入。2020年，联邦最高法院在 Chiafalo 案中一致裁定：各州可以处罚或替换失信选举人，多数州已有相关法律。

四、普选票赢了，为什么还会输

因为选举人票按州分配、「赢者通吃」，候选人完全可能在全国总票数落后的情况下，靠在关键州以微弱优势连胜而凑足270票。历史上四次出现「赢普选、输选举人团」：1876年、1888年、2000年与2016年。2000年最为典型：戈尔全国普选票多出约54万票，但布什以佛罗里达一州的537票优势拿下该州全部选举人票，最终以271票对266票入主白宫。

这套制度的存废是美国长期的公共议题：支持者认为它迫使候选人兼顾小州与农村地区、并让计票争议局限在个别州内；批评者认为它让少数摇摆州决定全国结果、且与「一人一票票票等值」的直观原则相冲突。修宪废除需要国会三分之二与州四分之三通过，门槛极高；另有州际协定方案（全国普选票州际协定）在部分州推进。制度本身如何运作，是看懂每次大选的第一步。

（上一章：总览——美国选举到底在选什么；下一章：国会怎样选出来。）

关联：美国选举制度（一）：总览：美国选举到底在选什么

关联：美国选举制度（三）：国会怎样选出来：参议院、众议院与选区重划

America's Electoral System (2): How the President Is Elected: The Electoral College and the Road to 270

[Key points]

The president is chosen indirectly, by the Electoral College: 538 electors, and 270 electoral votes win

48 states award all their electors to the statewide winner; Maine and Nebraska split theirs by congressional district

Four presidents have won the Electoral College while losing the national popular vote

1. You are really voting for electors

The president is elected by the Electoral College, a mechanism written into Article II of the Constitution and the Twelfth Amendment. When voters mark a presidential candidate's name in November, the legal meaning of that mark is narrower: it awards their state's electoral votes to the slate of electors pledged to that candidate's party.

There are 538 electors. Each state's number equals its congressional delegation - its House members, apportioned by population, plus two senators. The District of Columbia, though it has no voting members of Congress, receives three electors under the Twenty-third Amendment. A majority of 538 - that is, 270 - is the winning line.

2. Winner-take-all, with two exceptions

In 48 states, the rule is winner-take-all: the candidate who finishes first in the statewide popular vote receives every one of that state's electoral votes. Winning a state by a thousand votes or by a million makes no difference. This is the single most important key to understanding American presidential elections.

Two states use the congressional district method: Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the statewide winner and one elector to the winner of each congressional district. Their electoral votes can therefore split between candidates, as happened in both states in 2024.

3. From November's vote to January's inauguration

After Election Day, states certify their results in early December, and electors meet in mid-December in their state capitals to cast the official electoral ballots, which are sent to Washington. On January 6, a joint session of Congress, presided over by the vice president, counts them in public. If no candidate reaches 270, the House of Representatives decides in a contingent election - each state delegation casting one vote, 26 needed - while the Senate picks the vice president. On January 20, the new president takes the oath of office.

An elector who votes against the statewide result is called a faithless elector. Seven faithless votes were counted in 2016. In Chiafalo v. Washington (2020), the Supreme Court unanimously held that states may penalize or replace faithless electors, and most states now have such laws.

4. How a candidate can win the popular vote and lose the presidency

Because electoral votes are allocated state by state under winner-take-all, a candidate can pile up huge popular-vote margins in a few large states, finish second nationwide in raw votes, yet still reach 270 - or the reverse. It has happened four times: 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016. The classic case is 2000: Al Gore won the national popular vote by about 540,000 ballots, but George W. Bush carried Florida by 537 votes, took all of Florida's electoral votes, and won the presidency 271 to 266.

Supporters argue the system forces candidates to build geographically broad coalitions and confines recount fights to individual states; critics argue it lets a handful of swing states decide the outcome and offends one-person-one-vote intuition. Abolishing it would require a constitutional amendment - two-thirds of Congress and three-quarters of the states - which is why the debate continues but the institution endures.

(Previous: the big picture. Next: how Congress is elected.)

Related: America's Electoral System (1): The Big Picture: What U.S. Elections Actually Decide

Related: America's Electoral System (3): How Congress Is Elected: Senate, House and Redistricting

来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）

图片来源：图：白宫北面。美国总统由选举人团选出，而非由全国普选票直接决定。Beethoven 摄／Wikimedia Commons（CC BY-SA 4.0）

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