阿根廷主权风险溢价回升至约648个基点 央行购汇放缓与2027至2028年到期高峰成焦点
10月中旬，阿根廷主权风险溢价（JP Morgan「riesgo país」指数）回升至约648个基点，较7月约403个基点的低位明显走高，与同期其他新兴市场债券价格改善的走势背离。
分析认为，推高溢价的主要是国内因素：阿根廷央行今年头七个月购入约140亿美元外汇后，积累速度放缓；经济活动疲弱、就业流失以及2027年选举前的政治不确定性，也压低了投资者对阿根廷资产的兴趣。研究机构 BCA Research 已平仓其阿根廷债券、本地股票与两年期比索工具的多头头寸。
阿根廷2027至2028年每年面临约140亿美元外部到期债务，另据估算2027年融资缺口约100亿美元。国际货币基金组织（IMF）已提醒，全球能源价格上涨可能拖慢阿根廷的去通胀进程；经济学家 Joaquín Cottani 等人则呼吁放松货币与汇率政策以提振活动。融资成本若持续高企，将挤压公共支出与就业，这正是市场接下来盯住的变量。
Argentina's Sovereign Risk Premium Back Near 648 Basis Points as Reserve Buying Slows
Argentina's sovereign risk premium, JP Morgan's 'riesgo país' index, climbed back to about 648 basis points in mid-October, reversing a July low near 403 and diverging from improving bond prices in other emerging markets.
Analysts point mainly to domestic factors: the central bank's reserve accumulation slowed after it bought roughly $14 billion in the first seven months of 2026, while weak activity, job losses and political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 election have cooled investor interest in Argentine assets. BCA Research has closed long positions in Argentine bonds, local stocks and two-year peso instruments.
Argentina faces roughly $14 billion a year in external maturities in 2027–28, plus an estimated financing gap near $10 billion for 2027. The IMF has warned that rising global energy prices could stall disinflation, and economists including Joaquín Cottani have urged looser monetary and exchange-rate policy to revive activity. If borrowing costs stay high, public spending and jobs could be squeezed — the variable markets are now watching.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：布宜诺斯艾利斯玫瑰宫（总统府）。来源：Wikimedia Commons，CC BY-SA 4.0 / Photo: The Casa Rosada in Buenos Aires. Source: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
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