美联储理事 Waller：核心通胀升至3.4% 货币政策走到十字路口
华盛顿——美联储理事 Christopher J. Waller 10月8日发表经济展望讲话表示，尽管关税推高商品成本、中东冲突推高能源价格，家庭与企业支出保持韧性，劳动力市场稳定，接近联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的充分就业目标；但通胀仍过高，货币政策正走到十字路口。
Waller 指出，12个月核心 PCE 通胀率已从2025年12月的3.0%升至今年5月的3.4%，且已超过 FOMC 的2%目标五年半。他说，关税与油价造成的一次性价格上涨本可「看穿」，但核心通胀持续上行、超级智能建设推高高科技产品价格等因素累积，使他判断 FOMC 自2025年12月至今年9月维持的政策立场不足以及时把通胀带回2%；他同时表示，经济活动在今年下半年走强，他不太担心偏紧的货币政策会造成破坏性放缓，更担心的是通胀预期被上修。（GSM 据美联储官网讲话全文报道）
Fed Governor Waller: With Core Inflation Up to 3.4%, Monetary Policy Is at a Crossroads
WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller said on October 8 that spending by households and businesses has been resilient and the labor market stable, close to the FOMC's maximum-employment goal, but that inflation and monetary policy are at a crossroads. The 12-month core PCE inflation rate has risen from 3.0% in December 2025 to 3.4% in May, and inflation has run above the FOMC's 2% target for five and a half years.
Waller said one-time price increases from tariffs and oil prices can normally be looked through, but a preponderance of evidence over several months — including the super intelligence buildout driving up high-tech prices and continuing trade conflicts — led him to judge that the policy stance maintained from December 2025 through September would not return inflation to 2% in a timely manner. With economic activity strengthening in the second half of the year, he said he is not greatly concerned that tighter policy threatens a damaging slowdown, but is concerned that the recent acceleration in inflation will lead consumers, investors, and businesses to revise up their expectations. (GSM, based on the Federal Reserve speech text)
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：美联储总部 Eccles 大楼（华盛顿，资料照片）。照片：公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons。File photo: The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington. Photo: Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
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