路透调查：英格兰银行11月加息预期升温 经济学家上调今明两年通胀预测
伦敦——路透社10月15日公布的经济学家调查显示，英格兰银行（BoE）11月加息的预期正在升温。受访的61位经济学家中，近半数（30位）预计2027年第一季度还会有一次加息；调查同时把英国通胀预测上调至本季度平均3.6%、下季度3.8%，2027年全年3.0%，均高于上月调查的3.3%、3.2%与2.5%。
英格兰银行行长 Andrew Bailey 在上次货币政策委员会会议上已给出较明确的暗示，称加息的条件正在形成。Bank of America 英国经济学家 Sonali Punhani 近期把判断由「按兵不动」改为「加息」，称更大的通胀上行还在后面。在包括欧洲央行与美联储在内的多家央行已开始加息的背景下，英格兰银行自伊朗战事开始以来一直维持利率不变。
调查还把英国今年经济增长预测由1.1%小幅上调至1.3%，2027年与2028年分别维持在1.2%与1.5%；英国经济今年上半年表现在七国集团中居首。与此同时，在财政大臣 John Healey 10月28日公布预算前，英国国债收益率已升至数十年高位，推高了政府借贷成本。
信息来源：路透社全球经济调查，2026年10月15日（GSM 据路透社报道）
Reuters Poll: Expectations Build for a Bank of England Rate Hike in November as Economists Lift Inflation Forecasts
LONDON — Expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike in November are building, according to a Reuters poll of economists published October 15. Nearly half of the 61 economists surveyed — 30 — expected one more rise in the first quarter of 2027, and the poll raised its UK inflation forecasts to an average of 3.6 percent this quarter and 3.8 percent next, with 3.0 percent for 2027, up from 3.3, 3.2 and 2.5 percent in last month's poll.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey dropped a clear hint at the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting that higher rates were likely on the way. Sonali Punhani, UK economist at Bank of America, recently changed her view from hold to a hike, saying the bigger pickup in inflation is still ahead. The BoE has kept borrowing costs on hold since the start of the Iran war, while the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve have already begun raising rates.
The poll modestly raised this year's UK growth forecast to 1.3 percent from 1.1 percent, holding 2027 and 2028 at 1.2 and 1.5 percent; the British economy posted the best first-half growth among G7 economies. Government bond yields, meanwhile, have risen to their highest in decades ahead of Finance Minister John Healey's October 28 budget, lifting government borrowing costs.
Source: Reuters global economic poll, October 15, 2026 (GSM, based on Reuters reporting)
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：英格兰银行 Threadneedle Street 总部。geograph.org.uk · CC BY-SA 2.0
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
