大华银行上调越南2026年增长预测至9.2% 三季度增速9.95%创四年新高
新加坡大华银行（UOB）在最新宏观报告中将越南2026年经济增长预测从8.5%上调至9.2%。调整的依据是越南第三季度经济表现强于预期：据越南国家统计局数据，三季度国内生产总值同比增长9.95%，为2022年第三季度以来最快增速，高于大华银行9%的预估和市场8.65%的共识预期；今年前九个月越南经济累计增长9.01%，继续位居东盟主要经济体前列。
分部门看，三季度工业与建筑业增长12.5%，服务业增长逾9.5%，农业增长4.2%。大华银行预计第四季度越南经济增长约9.7%，支撑因素包括公共投资拨付提速、季节性出口旺季以及创纪录的外国直接投资流入：今年前九个月越南登记外资达503.6亿美元，同比增长76.4%，实际到位外资210.7亿美元，同比增长12.1%。
该行同时把2027年增长预测从8.4%上调至8.8%，并指出越南官方设定的10%增长目标需要第四季度增速达到12.5%至13%，实现难度较大。通胀方面，越南9月消费价格同比上涨5.1%，大华银行预计全年平均通胀约4.7%。
UOB Raises Vietnam's 2026 Growth Forecast to 9.2% After Near-Double-Digit Third Quarter
United Overseas Bank (UOB) has raised its 2026 growth forecast for Vietnam to 9.2%, from 8.5%, after the economy expanded faster than expected in the third quarter. Vietnam's GDP grew 9.95% year on year in the third quarter, its quickest pace since the third quarter of 2022, according to the National Statistics Office, beating UOB's own 9% estimate and a market consensus of 8.65%. Growth over the first nine months reached 9.01%.
Industry and construction expanded 12.5% in the third quarter, services grew more than 9.5% and agriculture rose 4.2%. UOB expects fourth-quarter growth of about 9.7%, supported by faster public investment disbursement, a seasonally strong export quarter and record foreign direct investment inflows. Registered FDI reached $50.36 billion in the first nine months, up 76.4% year on year, while disbursed FDI rose 12.1% to $21.07 billion.
The bank also lifted its 2027 forecast to 8.8% from 8.4%, but said the government's 10% growth target would require fourth-quarter expansion of 12.5% to 13% and is likely out of reach. Inflation reached 5.1% year on year in September.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：胡志明市夜景，西贡河畔金融塔楼群。图片来源：Tran Van Ngoc，CC0。Photo: Ho Chi Minh City skyline at night along the Saigon River. Image: Tran Van Ngoc, CC0.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
