希腊IOBE维持2026年增长预期1.8% 下调2027年预期至1.9%
希腊经济与工业研究基金会（IOBE）在本周发布的最新预期中，维持希腊2026年经济增长预期在1.8%不变，同时把2027年增长预期从2.0%下调至1.9%。据Investing.com报道、多家媒体10月16日转载，上述调整在本周四对外公布。
IOBE表示，希腊经济今年第二季度同比增长1.9%，略低于第一季度的2.0%。私人消费保持韧性，预计仍是增长的主要动力，但同时承受高能源成本与通胀的压力。该机构预计希腊2026年通胀率约4.0%，高于2025年的2.9%，主要原因是中东紧张局势推高能源价格；2027年通胀预计回落至约3.0%。
就业与债务方面，IOBE预计希腊失业率2026年为8.6%，2027年降至7.8%；公共债务占国内生产总值的比重预计从2026年的136.7%降至2027年的128.8%。该机构同时列出多项风险：地缘政治紧张、欧洲政治不确定性、欧盟复苏基金拨付可能延迟，以及持续高于欧元区平均水平的通胀。
Greece's IOBE Keeps 2026 Growth Forecast at 1.8%, Trims 2027 View to 1.9%
Greece's economic research institute IOBE has kept its 2026 growth forecast unchanged at 1.8 percent while trimming its projection for 2027 to 1.9 percent from 2.0 percent, according to Investing.com reporting carried by several outlets on October 16. IOBE said the Greek economy expanded 1.9 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, a modest slowdown from 2.0 percent in the first quarter, with private consumption holding up well.
The institute expects private consumption to remain the main engine of growth, even as it comes under strain from high energy costs and inflation. It projects inflation of roughly 4.0 percent in 2026, up from 2.9 percent in 2025, attributing the acceleration to higher energy prices linked to tensions in the Middle East, and expects inflation to ease to about 3.0 percent in 2027.
IOBE forecasts unemployment at 8.6 percent in 2026, falling to 7.8 percent in 2027, and expects public debt to decline to 136.7 percent of GDP in 2026 and 128.8 percent in 2027. It listed geopolitical tensions, political uncertainty in Europe, possible delays in drawing down EU recovery funds and above-eurozone-average inflation as risks to the outlook.
来源：GSM·美国（原文链接）
图片来源：图：雅典宪法广场希腊议会大厦前的无名烈士墓。图片来源：Yukatan，CC BY-SA。Photo: Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at the Hellenic Parliament, Syntagma Square, Athens. Image: Yukatan, CC BY-SA.
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