美联储全票维持利率3.50%至3.75%不变，Warsh首会将2026年利率预测上调至3.8%

2026年6月17日，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以12票对0票全票通过，决定把联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%至3.75%不变，并重申维持银行体系充裕准备金的政策。这是 Kevin Warsh 就任美联储主席后主持的首次 FOMC 会议。

委员会在声明中表示，尽管包括中东冲突在内的因素使不确定性上升，经济活动仍以稳健步伐扩张，生产率增长与资本投资强劲，就业增长与劳动力增长保持同步，失业率变化不大。声明指出，通胀相对2%的目标仍处高位，部分源于能源等供给冲击，并以一句「委员会将实现价格稳定」收尾。

同日公布的经济预测摘要（SEP）显示，2026年预测中位数为：实际 GDP 增长2.2%、失业率4.3%、PCE 通胀3.6%、核心 PCE 通胀3.3%；2026年底联邦基金利率的中位数预测升至3.8%，高于3月时的3.4%。本次共有18名与会者提交预测。美联储理事会在实施说明中把准备金余额利率维持在3.65%、主要信贷利率维持在3.75%，均自6月18日起生效。

关联：美联储维持利率3.50%至3.75%不变，11比1通过，通胀预测上调至2.7%

Fed Holds Rates at 3.50% to 3.75% Unanimously at Warsh's First Meeting, Lifts 2026 Rate Projection to 3.8%

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 on June 17, 2026, to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, and reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. It was the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh since he took over as Federal Reserve chair.

In its statement, the Committee said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty owing in part to the conflict in the Middle East, that productivity growth and capital investment were strong, and that job gains had kept pace with the workforce while the unemployment rate had changed little. Inflation, it said, remained elevated relative to its 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks including energy, closing with the line: "The Committee will deliver price stability."

The Summary of Economic Projections released the same day put the 2026 medians at 2.2 percent for real GDP growth, 4.3 percent for unemployment, 3.6 percent for PCE inflation and 3.3 percent for core PCE inflation, with the median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 rising to 3.8 percent, from 3.4 percent in March. Eighteen participants submitted projections. In its implementation note, the Board maintained the interest rate on reserve balances at 3.65 percent and the primary credit rate at 3.75 percent, both effective June 18.

Related: Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in an 11-1 Vote, Lifting Its 2026 Inflation Projection to 2.7%

来源：美联储

发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）

图片来源：图：美联储总部 Marriner S. Eccles 大楼（华盛顿特区）。AgnosticPreachersKid 摄，CC BY-SA 3.0，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: The Marriner S. Eccles Building, Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, D.C. Photo by AgnosticPreachersKid, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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