沙特猴痘传播动力学建模：有效再生数峰值2.08、2023年9月降至流行阈值以下
一项11月14日发表于《科学报告》的研究用病例监测数据与贝叶斯 SEIR 模型，估算了2023至2024年沙特阿拉伯猴痘疫情的人群层面传播动力学。数据覆盖2023年5月13日至2024年2月8日，研究纳入数据完整的确诊病例，占全部确诊病例的92%。
模型估算，在建模期起点2023年5月13日，有效再生数为2.04（95%可信区间1.47至2.64）；5月16日升至峰值2.08（95%可信区间1.55至2.66）；到2023年9月8日降至流行阈值以下，即有效再生数小于1。
研究还估出两个模型参数：把模型发病数与报告病例挂钩的观测缩放参数为0.561（95%可信区间0.351至0.786），过度离散参数为3.141（95%可信区间2.479至3.877），两项估值在分析中保持稳定。
病例特征方面，病例中包括有旅行史与社交场合暴露史者，病例系列以男性为主。作者指出，所观察到的动力学与全球 IIb 分支疫情背景一致，输入病例与本地传播相衔接。
研究作者来自 Taif University 数学系，研究获该校研究生与科研院系资助，所用数据为沙特卫生部的汇总监测数据，研究方案经沙特卫生部机构审查委员会批准，批号为 IRB Log No: 24-114E。
Modeling of Saudi Arabia Mpox Outbreak Puts Peak Effective Reproduction Number at 2.08, Falling Below Threshold by September 2023
A study published November 14 in Scientific Reports estimated the population-level transmission dynamics of the 2023-2024 Mpox outbreak in Saudi Arabia, integrating case-based surveillance data from May 13, 2023 to February 8, 2024 with a Bayesian SEIR model. The analysis used the 92 percent of confirmed cases with complete data.
At the onset of the modelled period, May 13, 2023, the effective reproduction number was estimated at 2.04 (95% credible interval 1.47-2.64). It rose to a peak of 2.08 (95% CrI 1.55-2.66) on May 16, 2023, and declined below the epidemic threshold, an effective reproduction number under 1, by September 8, 2023.
The study also estimated an observation-scaling parameter linking modelled incidence to reported cases at 0.561 (95% CrI 0.351-0.786), and an overdispersion parameter of 3.141 (95% CrI 2.479-3.877), with stable estimates.
Cases were reported among individuals with travel histories and reported exposure to social settings, and the case series showed a concentration among men. The author notes that the observed dynamics were consistent with the global Clade IIb outbreak context, connecting imported cases to local transmission.
The author is affiliated with the Department of Mathematics at Taif University, and the work was funded by the university's Deanship of Graduate Studies and Scientific Research. The analysis used anonymized aggregate surveillance data from the Saudi Ministry of Health, approved by the ministry's Institutional Review Board under reference IRB Log No: 24-114E.
来源：Scientific Reports
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：经着色处理的猴痘病毒颗粒透射电子显微镜图像，病毒颗粒呈绿色。来源：National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)，Wikimedia Commons，CC BY 2.0。 / Photo: Colorized transmission electron micrograph of monkeypox virus particles (green). Source: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
