檀香山夏威夷大学新研究：海平面上升威胁被低估 欧胡岛关键设施或全数受冲击
夏威夷大学马诺阿分校气候复原力合作组织发布的一项新研究指出，传统的海平面上升模型严重低估了夏威夷州欧胡岛沿海基础设施面临的威胁。
研究综合考虑了海岸侵蚀和高浪事件后发现，现有的单一灾害预测遗漏了多达三分之二的受威胁土地面积，以及85%至100%可能受影响的关键基础设施，包括建筑、道路和化粪池系统。
研究预测，在持续慢性洪水缓慢加剧之后，欧胡岛将在2073年至2102年之间迎来一个快速转折点，具体时间取决于全球排放路径。到达转折点时，受影响的建筑数量将从约5900栋接近翻倍至11100栋，受影响居民将从约27800人增至58100人以上。
其中，檀香山市区受被动洪水和海浪驱动洪水的影响最大，而欧胡岛西侧则更多面临每年高浪事件带来的间歇性突发冲击。该研究已发表于《环境研究：气候》期刊。
New University of Hawaiʻi Study: Sea-Level Rise Threat to Oʻahu Underestimated, Critical Infrastructure at Risk
A new study released by the Climate Resilience Collaborative at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa finds that traditional sea-level rise models drastically underestimate the threat to coastal infrastructure on Oʻahu, Hawaiʻi.
After factoring in shoreline erosion and high-wave events, the researchers found that current single-hazard projections overlook up to two-thirds of the threatened land area and 85% to 100% of the critical infrastructure likely to be affected, including buildings, roadways and cesspools.
The study projects that, after decades of steadily worsening chronic flooding, Oʻahu will reach a rapid tipping point between 2073 and 2102, depending on the global emissions path. At the tipping point, the number of buildings affected would nearly double, from about 5,900 to 11,100, and the number of residents affected would rise from about 27,800 to more than 58,100.
Urban Honolulu faces the greatest exposure to passive flooding and wave-driven flooding, while Oʻahu's west side is more exposed to intermittent, abrupt impacts from annual high-wave events. The study was published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate.
来源：夏威夷大学马诺阿分校
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图为檀香山威基基与钻石山一带海岸航拍。Photo: Waikiki and Diamond Head, Honolulu (Prayitno / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY 2.0)
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