联合国灾害预警报告：136 国已有某种预警能力、仅 64 国四项齐备，2027 年全覆盖目标恐难实现
路透社 11 月 11 日报道，一份联合国报告草案显示，全球灾害预警系统建设进度不一。报告按风险认知、探测监测与预报、预警发布、备灾与响应四个方面衡量各国进展，发现缺口仍然存在，特别是在实际运行准备与资金方面。
报告称，136 个国家已具备某种程度的早期预警能力，占国家总数三分之二以上，较 2015 年开始报告以来增加 143%。但四项能力全部齐备的国家只有 64 个。
联合国减少灾害风险办公室负责人表示，2027 年实现所有人全覆盖的目标看来难以达成。报告引用的劳合社基金会世界风险民调数据显示，在低收入与中低收入国家，收到预警者中能采取行动者不到一半，在中高收入国家这一比例为四分之三。
民调还显示，在 2025 年受访且过去五年经历过灾害的人中，80% 至少收到过一次预警，其中东亚为 95%，中非与西非为 47%。非洲开发银行气候与政策负责人对路透社说，非洲所需的额外投入在 50 亿至 100 亿美元之间。报告另称，38 个国家已有完全运行的手机广播预警系统，另有 17 个国家处于开发的最后阶段。
UN Disaster Warning Report: 136 Countries Have Some Early Warning Capacity, Only 64 Cover All Four Pillars, 2027 Full Coverage Target Unlikely
A draft UN report seen by Reuters found gaps in disaster early warning systems worldwide, especially around operational readiness and financing. The report measured progress across risk knowledge, detection, monitoring and forecasting, warning dissemination, and preparedness and response.
More than two-thirds of countries, 136 in total, have some early warning capacity, a 143 percent increase since reporting began in 2015. Only 64 of them had capability across all four pillars, the report found.
The head of the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction said a 2027 target of full coverage for everybody was unlikely to be met. Data from the Lloyds Register Foundation World Risk Poll cited in the report showed that in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, fewer than half of those warned were able to act on the warning, compared with three-quarters in upper-middle-income countries.
Of people surveyed in 2025 who had experienced a disaster in the previous five years, 80 percent had received at least one warning, but the share was 95 percent in East Asia and 47 percent in Central and Western Africa. James Kinyangi of the African Development Bank told Reuters the extra investment required in Africa ranged between 5 billion and 10 billion dollars. The report said 38 countries have fully operational cell-broadcast warning systems and another 17 are in the final stages of developing them.
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图片来源：图：一座用于灾害天气警报的户外预警警报器。Tony Bressie 摄，CC0，经 Wikimedia Commons / Photo: The Warning Siren (185823979). By Tony Bressie, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons
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