菲律宾OCTA首份2028年双人组合民调：罗布雷多与图尔福组合以43%对39%领先杜特尔特家组合
菲律宾民调机构 OCTA Research 11月11日公布该机构第一份2028年大选双人组合民调：前副总统 Leni Robredo 与参议员 Raffy Tulfo 的组合获43%支持，达沃市长 Sebastian Duterte 与参议员 Robin Padilla 的组合获39%，18%的受访者尚未决定。
这项民调于9月28日至10月4日以面对面方式访问全国1,200名成年人，抽样误差为正负3个百分点。两组之间4个百分点的差距，按 OCTA 自己的误差口径并不足以判定胜负。同一轮民调的参议员人选支持率中，Tulfo 为47%、Padilla 为45%、Alan Peter Cayetano 为44%、Vico Sotto 为42%，Sebastian Duterte 以36%与 Grace Poe 并列第五、六位。Sebastian Duterte 是前总统罗德里戈·杜特尔特之子、副总统莎拉·杜特尔特之弟，家族内部称他为 Baste。
需要说明的是，两组人选都只是假设组合：Robredo 已在11月9日公开表示不会竞逐2028年任何全国职位；Sebastian Duterte 也从未宣布参选总统，他的名字被提出，是外界设想一旦其姐姐莎拉在正在进行的弹劾审判中被定罪、无法参选时，由他作为后备人选。OCTA 亦承认，这轮民调还不能显示任何一组的支持是在上升还是下降。
关联：跟进：莎拉弹劾审判第42天：辩方证人证实她收取GenCorp逾214万比索、法庭将传唤投资原始记录
（来源：OCTA Research）
OCTA's First 2028 Tandem Poll in the Philippines: Robredo-Tulfo Leads Duterte-Padilla 43% to 39%
Philippine pollster OCTA Research released its first 2028 tandem survey on November 11, showing former vice president Leni Robredo paired with Senator Raffy Tulfo at 43 percent, ahead of Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte paired with Senator Robin Padilla at 39 percent, with 18 percent undecided.
The survey was conducted face to face among 1,200 adults nationwide from September 28 to October 4, with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The four-point gap between the two pairings is too small, under OCTA's own error margins, to call a winner. In the same survey's senatorial preference results, Tulfo scored 47 percent and Padilla 45 percent, followed by Alan Peter Cayetano at 44 percent and Vico Sotto at 42 percent, while Sebastian Duterte registered 36 percent, tied with Grace Poe for fifth and sixth. Sebastian Duterte, known in the family as Baste, is a son of former president Rodrigo Duterte and a brother of Vice President Sara Duterte.
Both pairings are hypothetical. Robredo said on November 9 that she would not run for any national post in 2028. Sebastian Duterte has never declared a presidential candidacy; his name is being floated as a contingency should his sister Sara be convicted in her ongoing impeachment trial and be unable to run. OCTA conceded the results cannot yet show whether support for either tandem is rising or falling.
(Source: OCTA Research)
来源：OCTA Research
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：达沃市长 Sebastian Duterte 在菲律宾参议院宣誓（资料图）。公共领域，经 Wikimedia Commons。 / Photo: Davao City Mayor Sebastian Duterte taking his oath at the Philippine Senate (file photo). Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons.
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