《自然-气候变化》区域升温研究：多达94%的地区已突破工业化前1.5摄氏度升温，加拿大与欧洲大部已超2摄氏度，俄罗斯北极达3.3摄氏度
一项发表于《自然-气候变化》的研究首次在区域尺度上系统估算了人为气候变化造成的升温。美国地球物理联合会 Eos 于 2026 年 11 月 9 日报道了这项研究。
研究团队来自维多利亚大学等机构。他们综合分析了各区域本地气候观测、全球气候观测以及对历史气候变化的模拟，覆盖政府间气候变化专门委员会第六次评估报告所列的数十个地区，用填补数据空白的方法估算缺乏完整历史观测记录地区的升温。
结果显示，按填补后的数据，现今气候相对工业化前已在多达 94% 的地区突破 1.5 摄氏度升温。部分地区升温更快：加拿大与欧洲大部分地区已超过 2 摄氏度，某些极高纬度地区超过 2.5 摄氏度，其中俄罗斯北极地区升温达 3.3 摄氏度。
作为背景，报道援引的数据称全球平均气温自工业化前以来已升温约 1.44 摄氏度。论文共同作者、维多利亚大学气候科学家 Francis Zwiers 在发布会上表示，现今的全球平均气候在统计上已与 1.5 摄氏度升温的世界无法区分。
作者还给出时间投影：在高排放情景 SSP5-8.5 下，全球平均气温预计于 2029 年达到 1.5 摄氏度、于 2042 年达到 2 摄氏度。未参与该研究的埃克塞特大学气候科学家 Peter Stott 在同刊评论中写道，人类实际上已经生活在一个 1.5 摄氏度的世界里。
Nature Climate Change Regional Warming Study: Up to 94% of Regions Have Passed 1.5 Degrees Celsius Above Preindustrial Levels, Canada and Much of Europe Are Beyond 2 Degrees, and the Russian Arctic Reaches 3.3 Degrees
A study published in Nature Climate Change provides the first analysis of human-caused warming on a regional scale by filling in data gaps for regions that lack historic climate observations. Eos, of the American Geophysical Union, reported the study on November 9, 2026.
The authors, including researchers at the University of Victoria, analyzed in-region climate observations, global climate observations, and simulations of past climate change for dozens of regions referenced in the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to estimate warming in places without complete historical records.
After filling in the gaps, the researchers found that the current climate has already breached 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming since preindustrial times in up to 94% of regions. Some regions have warmed faster: in Canada and large portions of Europe, temperatures have already warmed more than 2 degrees Celsius, in some very high-latitude regions warming exceeded 2.5 degrees, and the Russian Arctic has warmed 3.3 degrees Celsius.
As background, the report cited a global average warming of about 1.44 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times. Francis Zwiers, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria and coauthor of the study, said at a press conference that today global mean climate is already statistically indistinguishable from a one and a half-degree warming world.
The authors also projected that under the high-emissions scenario SSP5-8.5, global average temperatures will reach 1.5 degrees Celsius in 2029 and 2 degrees Celsius in 2042. Peter Stott, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter who was not involved in the research, wrote in a commentary for Nature Climate Change that people are effectively already living in a 1.5-degree world.
来源： https://eos.org/research-and-developments/many-regions-have-warmed-beyond-1-5c-and-some-beyond-2c-new-study-finds
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