世界粮食计划署11月9日在COP31警告：厄尔尼诺到2027年底或令至少4900万人陷入严重粮食不安全
安塔利亚 — 第 31 届联合国气候变化大会 11 月 9 日在土耳其安塔利亚开幕，联合国世界粮食计划署同日警告，仅靠人道主义援助已无法跟上日益频繁的极端天气与正在增强的厄尔尼诺所引发的反复危机。
粮食署的分析预计，当前这轮厄尔尼诺到 2027 年底可能使至少 4900 万人进一步陷入严重粮食不安全。这一现象预计在 2026 年 10 月至 12 月达到最强，其对种植季、收成与粮食价格的影响可能持续到 2028 年初。
粮食署副执行主任兼首席运营官卡尔斯考表示，COP31 必须抓住这一窗口，把它转化为更快、更容易获得的融资，送到灾害前线国家与社区手中。
粮食署是联合国系统内使用预先安排融资最多的机构，借助预期行动、保险与应急资金，在紧急情况发生之前或刚发生后立即提供支持。今年 1 月至 9 月，粮食署已向 490 万人发出预警，并赶在预报中的洪水、风暴与干旱到来之前向逾 150 万人提供了援助，背后动用的预先安排资金为 4620 万美元。
联合国秘书长发言人办公室同日在每日简报中指出，预先安排的融资目前占全球人道主义资金的比例不到 2%。粮食署呼吁出席 COP31 的各国领导人扩大可预测、可预先安排并能在预报灾害升级为灾难之前释放的融资，同时投资于各国主导的预警、预期行动、灾害风险管理与能应对冲击的社会保护体系。
WFP Warns at COP31 Opening on November 9 That El Niño Could Push at Least 49 Million More People Into Acute Food Insecurity by the End of 2027
Antalya — As COP31 began in Antalya, Türkiye, on November 9, the United Nations World Food Programme warned that humanitarian assistance alone cannot keep pace with recurrent crises caused by increasingly frequent weather extremes and a strengthening El Niño.
WFP analysis projects that the current El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027. The phenomenon is expected to reach peak intensity between October and December 2026, while its impact on planting seasons, harvests and food prices could continue into early 2028.
Carl Skau, WFP's Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer, said COP31 must seize this window and turn it into faster, more accessible financing for the countries and communities on the front lines of disasters.
WFP is the UN's largest user of pre-arranged financing, drawing on anticipatory action, insurance, and contingency funding to deliver support before or immediately after an emergency. Between January and September, WFP reached 4.9 million people with early warnings and provided more than 1.5 million with assistance ahead of forecast floods, storms, and droughts, backed by US$46.2 million in pre-arranged funds.
The UN Secretary-General's spokesperson's office said at the daily briefing the same day that pre-arranged financing accounts for less than 2 per cent of global humanitarian funding. WFP is calling on leaders at COP31 to scale up predictable, pre-arranged financing that can be released before forecasted hazards escalate into disasters, and to invest in nationally led early warning, anticipatory action, disaster risk management, and shock-responsive social protection systems.
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图片来源：Wikipedia/Wikimedia Commons 词条主图：Million People March
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