跟进：古特雷斯称COP31是气候行动「真相时刻」 1.5摄氏度目标已难实现
联合国气候大会 COP31 将于 11 月 9 日至 20 日在土耳其安塔利亚举行。联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯在 11 月 6 日刊出的美联社专访中警告，世界正处在气候行动的“真相时刻”，各国政府不能再以无休止的讨论相互推诿，必须立即拿出更快、可衡量的减排行动。这将是古特雷斯任内最后一次气候大会—他的第二个、也是最后一个秘书长任期将于今年年底结束。
古特雷斯在联合国总部办公室接受了 20 分钟专访，其间三次重复“真相时刻”这一说法。他说，去年在发表一次重要气候讲话前征询科学家意见时，对方告诉他，2015 年《巴黎协定》把升温控制在 1.5 摄氏度以内的目标已经无法实现，原因是二氧化碳与其他温室气体不断累积。他表示，失败不在世界本身，而在政治领导层：保护环境需要长远眼光，而现行体制中政策随选举更迭而摇摆，恰恰缺少这种眼光。
古特雷斯同时谈到希望所在。他以 20 世纪 90 年代末担任葡萄牙总理的经历为例说，投资可持续未来是可行的，风能与太阳能的全球扩张就是证明。但他警告，乌克兰与伊朗的战争，加上人工智能带来的巨大能源需求，正在叠加成新的威胁。他还主张，对化石燃料企业赚取的巨额利润征税，用以帮助受气候危机冲击最严重的国家。
路透社 11 月 6 日的报道说，化石燃料削减与气候资金是 COP31 议程上的两大议题。德国非政府组织气候分析（Climate Analytics）在 COP31 前发布的新报告发现，削减甲烷与其他短寿命气候污染物，可使全球变暖速度到 2035 年放缓约 12%；如果同时快速摆脱化石燃料，2030 年代的变暖速度可减半，峰值升温到本世纪中叶可控制在约 1.7 摄氏度。国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔对《金融时报》说，他预计 COP31 将出现“气候行动的回归”，能源安全目标与气候目标“很少如此一致”。
联合国环境规划署 11 月 4 日发布的适应资金报告则显示，适应资金存在“惊人的缺口”。古特雷斯在报告发布时说，这一缺口“不只以金钱衡量”，还以“生命、生计与失去的未来”衡量，并呼吁发达国家向最脆弱国家提供“快速、简单、可获得的支持”。
Follow-Up: Guterres Calls COP31 a 'Moment of Truth' for Climate Action, Says 1.5C Goal Is Out of Reach
The COP31 climate summit opens in Antalya, Türkiye, on November 9 and runs through November 20. In an Associated Press interview published on November 6, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world is approaching a "moment of truth" on climate action, saying governments can no longer afford cycles of endless debate in which nations shift blame onto one another, and must take faster, measurable action to cut emissions. It will be his last climate summit as secretary-general — his second and final term ends at the close of this year.
Guterres repeated the phrase "moment of truth" three times during the 20-minute interview from his office at UN headquarters. He said that when he consulted scientists last year before delivering a major climate speech, they told him the 2015 Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius was no longer achievable, because of the accumulation of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. He said the failure lies not with the world itself but with political leadership: protecting the environment requires a long-term vision that is missing from systems where policies shift with elections.
He also pointed to reasons for hope. Drawing on his experience as Portugal's prime minister in the late 1990s, he said investing in a sustainable future is possible, citing the global expansion of wind and solar energy. But he warned that the wars in Ukraine and Iran, combined with the huge energy demands of artificial intelligence, are creating compounding threats. He argued that the massive profits of fossil fuel companies should be taxed to help the nations hit hardest by the climate crisis.
Fossil fuel cuts and climate finance top the COP31 agenda, Reuters reported on November 6. A new report by the German NGO Climate Analytics, released ahead of COP31, found that cutting methane and other short-lived climate pollutants could reduce the pace of global warming by about 12 percent by 2035; combined with a rapid shift away from fossil fuels, it could halve the pace of warming in the 2030s and limit peak warming to around 1.7 degrees Celsius by mid-century. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, told the Financial Times he expects a "climate action comeback" at COP31, adding that he has "rarely seen the energy security policy objectives and the climate objectives so closely aligned."
The UN Environment Programme's adaptation finance report, released on November 4, found a "staggering shortfall" in adaptation funding. Guterres said the gap is "not measured in money alone" but in "lives, livelihoods and lost futures," and called on developed countries to deliver "fast, simple, accessible support" to the most vulnerable.
来源：美联社
发布：GSM·美国（发布链接）
图片来源：图：美国国会图书馆主楼（资料图）。The Library of Congress main building. (file photo)
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